UNICREDIT, SNAP THE INCREASE WITH THE THRILL
THE EURO BELOW 1,27. EUROPEAN AUCTIONS UNDERWAY
Once again the spotlights of world finance are turned to Milan. From today to January 20 in Piazza Affari it will in fact be possible to negotiate the rights of the mega increase Unicredit from 75 billion, the first test for European banks after the requests of the EBA. But Consob will also monitor the operation under a microscope, in an attempt, so far in vain, to effectively enforce the ban on short selling, circumvented in various ways by the market. For example by making extensive use of securities lending, a market where there has been a drastic increase in the demand for Unicredit shares as demonstrated by the increase in rates from 1 to 7%. But who has so many Unicredit titles to lend? The suspicions concern the investors who will not adhere to the increase, whether individuals or institutions. In any case, the rights of the operation will start, after the last disastrous sessions, at around 1,36 euros. Instead, there will be time until January 27 to subscribe for the new shares at 1,943 euros each (two shares for an old one already owned), offered with a discount on the Terp which, after the landslide at the beginning of January, has fallen to about 26% compared to the initial 43%. How will the increase go? If one looks at other operations completed in this difficult situation, it is reasonable to expect that rights will be under pressure today and in the next few days, also due to arbitrage by large investors. Then everything will depend on the trend of subscriptions, starting from the choices of the large private shareholders, Heavy e Maramotti, who have not yet announced their pick.
WEAK START FOR ASIA. The Unicredit challenge is part of a high-voltage framework for the euro area. The single currency opens the week down on Asian stock exchanges, falling below 1,27 against the dollar in Tokyo and to an all-time low against the yen. The Japanese stock market is about to close lower (Nikkei 225 index – 1,16%) equal toHang Seng of Hong Kong -0,81%. Futures signal a downward start to the session on European markets. Meanwhile, one of the major operators on the Shanghai market, ZhangHan, son of the former prime minister, expects a robust 2012% increase in the index for 36. The reason? The government will soon have to implement a series of very aggressive cuts in the cost of borrowing to counter the fall of the economy.
FLASH OF TREASURY AUCTIONS AHEAD. It will be yet another week full of summit meetings (Merkel-Sarkozy, then tap to Mario Monti on view in London and Berlin). But also of the first, demanding tests on the sovereign debt of the euro area. We begin today with the German auction (4 billion) and with the placement of 7,7 billion French securities with 12-month or lower maturities. But the most awaited exam concerns Italy: on Thursday 12-month BOTs will be offered (but a quarterly tranche is also possible, just to take advantage of the drop in short-term yields), on Friday it will be the turn of three-year BTPs. In all from 16 to 20 billion. Also on Thursday, the ECB will take stock, in its usual monthly meeting, on the state of bank deposits with the ECB and the failure to take off loans to the real economy. Unless other emergencies force a change, at least in part, to the agenda: the attacks on French securities, with the relative increase in the spread on the German bund (153 points, 19 more than on New Year's Eve) suggest that the market assumes imminent the downgrading of the Paris rating.
THE US QUARTERLY STARTS. Tonight, after the stock market is closed, Wall Street will celebrate the rite of the quarterly Alcoa, the aluminum giant which traditionally kicks off the 2011 accounting season. Analysts predict a slowdown: profits will rise on average by only 6,5%, against the 14% estimated in September. But rather than reckon with the results of a quarter heavily influenced by the woes in Europe (and by the slowdown in Asia) operators are looking ahead, waiting for new signals on the consistency of the recovery under way in the USA. Meanwhile, while awaiting the debut of Facebook, the big names on Wall Street are defending the values of the latest IPOs: Morgan Stanley, who oversaw the IPOs of LinkedIn need Zynga, made strong stock purchases of the two companies in December to support the price.
FONSAI, HERE COMES THE UNIPOL OFFER. The time for choices has come. Within the week Unipol will formalize its proposal for the group Ligresti. The plan, large world, should include: 1) the purchase of 50% of Premafin by the holding company Finsoe which will then participate pro rata in the increase from 70 million Fondiaria Sai; 2) there will then be a merger between Fonsai and Unipol itself, suitably recapitalised and "purified" by Banca Unipol. The offer of the coops is an alternative to that of Hourglass, even if an agreement between the two contenders is not excluded. Not easy because the prospects and objectives of the two groups are quite dissimilar (why should Claudio Sposito favor the agreement with Unipol?). In the background Matteo Arpe's Sator and Palladio Finanziaria are watching. Finally, to complicate the puzzle, there are the moods of the Ligresti house where they work for an improbable rescue.
CHRYSLER ON THE STOCK EXCHANGE IN A YEAR, SERGIO OUT IN THREE. The placement of shares Chrysler on Wall Street it will start between 2012 and 2013, easier within the year that has just begun. Thus speaks "the fearless general" of the US house who adds: "We have defined an organization that sets itself 2 objectives: first to create my succession, second to create someone who will survive me". Sergio Marchionne, interviewed by the Detroit Free Press on the eve of the opening of America's most important motor show on the shores of Michigan, reiterates the "revelation" he has been making for some time: superSergio intends to leave the leadership of the group in 2015 or 2016, when it will be completed in to all intents and purposes the merger between Detroit and Fiat. The race for the succession is already open: many are called, within the GEC, the command body of the group strengthened a year ago, many will be the victims, only one will survive the tests imposed on Marchionne who today will enjoy the presentation of Dodge Dart, the green car that allowed him to bring home the last 5% of Chrysler in the hands of the federal government.
morning of exams forEni after the announcement that Tehran does not recognize the 2 billion dollars of credits towards the six-legged dog of the Iranian oil company, NIOC. The agreements called for Nioc to pay off the debt with supplies of crude oil. Eni thus risks being hostage to the tensions that divide Teheran from the US and the EU, which culminated in the sanctions. Meanwhile, in an interview with Corriere della Sera, the CEO Paolo Scaroni reiterates the group's position on the ownership of Snam Rete Gas: "It remains to be demonstrated that the liberalization comes from the sale of Snam" defined as "a false problem".
Last week ended with an evident decoupling between Wall Street on the rise and Europe, Italy in the lead, in evident difficulty. The average gain of the US lists is +1,7%, the European stock exchanges close down. Milan stands out in the negative with an overall drop of 3% The euro fell to 1,272 against the dollar, to levels not seen since September 2010. The spread moved little around 520 basis points for a ten-year BTP yield at 7,07%.
