On the chessboard in front of Andrea Orcell there are still several moves to be played in this game which sees him as the protagonist of the'oops on Banco Bpm from 10,1 billion. In these hours, Orcel is preparing to go to Paris to meet the Crédit Agricole, the majority shareholder (with 10%) of Banco Bpm itself. Objective: the managed savings.
While on the one hand Unicredit has collected the Positive rating from Moody's, but also indirectly even from the same "colleague" Intesa San Paolo, on the other hand some people shoot at him members of the government that unsheath the golden power and the same Joseph Castagna, who terrorized the employees of his institute by prophesying 6000 redundancies, followed by the unionists of Fabi. Yesterday a Unicredit source said that "the number indicated by Banco Bpm is pure conjecture" and that "Unicredit has a proven track record in protecting and investing in its network and its branches, as well as in the management of its people, their development and their training, thanks to a continuous, positive and constructive dialogue with all the unions that has always allowed agreements to be reached with the use of socially responsible measures". Instead Castagna is thinking of calling an extraordinary meeting of Bpm shareholders to see if there is room for raise the price of the takeover bid on Anima.
But right from the French front a new evolution could be coming. In Paris, according to what is reported by Courier, Orcel wants to meet CA CEO Philippe Brassac and it will be an opportunity to dialogue with others Banco Bpm shareholders, largely funds. From Amundi, the asset management arm of Banque Verte, Axa, BNP Paribas a Lazard.
Orcel's focus is on managed savings: eyes on Anima and Amundi
It has become clear in the last few hours that Unicredit's objective is the managed savings, the sector which, with the disappearance of the profits deriving from the ECB's high rates up to now, is the one which will be able to keep the profits of the institution in Piazza Gae Aulenti highest.
Anima sgr, on which Banco Bpm itself has launched a takeover bid, it could be a obiettivo and would explain Unicredit's takeover bid on its main shareholder, Banco Bpm itself. Anima's shareholding structure is also protected: almost 50% of the capital is in the hands of strong shareholders, such as Bpm itself with 22,4%, followed by Poste with almost 12%, by the FSI fund led by Maurizio Tamagnini with 9,8% and by Francesco Gaetano Caltagirone who has almost 3,5% through Gamma, in addition to approximately 3% of its own shares. The price Orcel's Ops was even judged offensive for its low level by the Bank which is perhaps hoping for a relaunch by Orcel.
But, there is also something to consider Amundi, the largest company in data management; European funds, which is controlled by Credit Agricole and has just announced that it holds a 1,3% stake in UniCredit on behalf of its clients. Amundi also has a fund management agreement with UniCredit until 2027, having bought Pioneer, the Italian bank's fund division, in 2017. At the time, Italy had sought to keep Pioneer in Italian hands, but Amundi had outbid a consortium of domestic investors.
Therefore Credit Agricole, which in Italy already has Cariparma and Friuladria, you may also consider it convenient to join theUnicredit offer and return to the field with a dowry of branches and customers to manage directly.
If the Paris meeting if no agreements are reached, Credit Agricole could evaluate countermoves to further ignite the tricolour banking risk and in turn create a mega savings management hub with Amundi. Also not to be forgotten Agos consumer credit Ducato, 60% of Agricole and 40% of Banco Bpm.
There is another interesting intersection in this banking risk: the strategic partnership between Soul and the Montepaschi of Siena, which is one of its main customers: it represents 16% of Anima's retail volumes and with which the group has a contract until 2030. bpm has just purchased 5% of the Treasury from the Ministry of Economy and Finance Ps e Anima it rose to 9%: the idea was to create that famous third bank pole, as hoped for by some members of the government.
