We leave. Today in Piazza Affari the increase of Unicredit kicks off, the most demanding in the Italian financial history. Wall Street, on the other hand, will have to deal with the latest thrust by Donald Trump, who has launched the dismantling of the financial reforms approved under the presidency of Barack Obama. But the applause of the banks (+2,6% on Friday the sector index) does not console the president for the double defeat suffered on the anti-immigration decree. Consolidating his winning image will certainly contribute to the thrilling victory of his team, the Patriots, in a very tight SuperBowl.
The brilliant data coming from US employment has brought good humor to the financial markets: there is an air of recovery and reflation almost everywhere, but not so strong as to suggest an imminent rate hike (first the Fed will want to see the Trump's tax measures). Meanwhile, thanks to the policy implemented by the ECB, the economy in the fourth quarter (+0,5%) was more robust than in the USA.
But on the Old Continent the electoral uncertainties weigh heavily (especially in France where Marie Le Pen threatens to leave the EU), the Greek crisis and the precarious state of Italian public finance. Against this backdrop, we try to understand the extent of Angela Merkel's breakthrough on a two-speed Europe. Today it will be Mario Draghi's turn to pronounce on the new position of the Chancellor.
TOKYO +0,4%. GOLD AND OIL RISE
Meteo Borsa forecasts moving markets, but favored by the upward breeze arriving from the USA. The Asian opening is positive. Tokyo and Hong Kong rose, both +0,4%. Sydney is also on positive ground. Chinese markets held firm, busy absorbing Friday's unexpected hike in short-term rates. The PMI services index, an indicator of China's economy released tonight by Caixin, was slightly below the estimates. Shanghai rises by 0,3%, Seoul by 0,1%, Mumbai by 0,6%.
The euro was little moved this morning, at 1,078 against the dollar. Gold is trading at $1.223, up 0,3%, after finishing the past week up 2,4%. Oil continues to appreciate: Brent rises by 0,3%, to 57 dollars (+2,2% last week).
THE WEEK: ABE IN WASHNGTON, MOODY'S REPORT CARD FOR ITALY
Trump's crusade against the US trade deficit is likely set to increase in tone tomorrow, when the January trade balance figures are released, which should match the previous deficit (-45,2 billion dollars). It is in this context that the visit of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to Washington, scheduled for Friday, fits. At the center of the talks, the US president's accusations of the alleged undervaluation of the yen and the cancellation of the TPP agreement, dear to Tokyo. But the military tensions in the China Sea with Beijing (and the threat from North Korea) could encourage a soft attitude. At the center of the talks, in addition to the yen / dollar exchange, agriculture and the car: Trump has already threatened retaliation against Toyota for investments in Mexico.
The decline in the dollar promises to add new fuel to Wall Street's rise in a week full of quarterly earnings: the results of more than 80 Standard & Poor's companies will be announced in the coming days, including GM, Coca Cola and Walt Disney. In Europe, on the other hand, the accounts of Renault and Bnp Paribas are expected, among others. Enel's board of directors will be held in Italy on Friday. On the same day, with the stock exchange closed, the Moody's agency will announce the update of the rating on Italy and the new rating on France will also be communicated. Also on Friday, the mid-month auction on 12-month Bots will be held: the amount will be communicated on Tuesday.
UNICREDIT STARTS AGAIN AT 13,11 EUROS FOR EACH NEW SECURITY
In Piazza Affari everything is ready for the grand debut of the Unicredit increase (-5,6% in the last week). Until next Friday the shares, on offer at 8.09 euros (of which 8,08 in premium shares) in the ratio of 13 new shares for every 5 held, will be reserved in options for old shareholders. The discussion of the rights will close on February 17th. Last Friday, with markets closed, Borsa Italiana provided the new share prices after the application of the adjustment factor: the closing price thus went from 26,16 to 13,11 euros (37.299 for savings securities). The price of the rights that will be treated starting this morning is 13,05 euros.
The operation, which envisages a 38% discount on the Terp (theoretical price of the security after detachment of the right) will be covered by a guarantee mega-consortium. Among the major shareholders, in addition to the adhesion of Leonardo del Vecchio who will fully cover his share, the partial adhesion of the Crt Foundation has arrived, which will subscribe 70% of its share, which follows that of the Cariverona Foundation. The two entities will thus drop at the end of the increase from the current 2,2% to about 1,80%. In the meantime, the bank has concluded an agreement with the unions: 2.000 hires are expected against 3.900 voluntary exits, an operation which is part of an industrial plan to streamline the group, which wants to close over 800 branches to revive profitability.
GENERALI DECIDES ON THE 3% OF INTESA
Spotlights also on Generali's investment committee (-2,7% in the last five sessions in line with Mediobanca -3%) which today will have to decide whether or not to confirm the securities lending on 3,01% of Intesa San Paolo decided to block the road to the entrance to the bank in the capital. After the declarations of the institute's CEO Carlo Messina, who confirmed that he is studying industrial combinations with the Lion, the company's top management must decide the next steps. It is easy to predict that the company will not let its guard down, but resorting to another kind of barrier to oppose the (unwelcome) shareholder is not excluded. The recruitment of a new advisor to work alongside Goldman Sachs is not excluded.
On the Intesa front (+2,6% on Friday, but -1,3% in the last five sessions) after the presentation of the accounts for the fourth quarter, confirmation of the positive reception by brokers to the announced results and objectives has to be awaited from Messina: “We are still in a position to pay 4 billion, but the challenging scenario makes it more prudent to commit to 3,4 billion. I'd rather outperform than underperform,” explained the CEO.
Over the course of the 2014-2017 plan, the target remains for total dividends of 10 billion. The proposed dividend for 2016 is 0,178 euro for ordinary shares and 0,189 for savings shares, both up from 0,14 and 0,151 respectively.
Week of appointments also for other Italian banks. Mediobanca's board of directors is expected on Wednesday, Banca Mps and Bper will be on Thursday. Banco Bpm will close on Friday.
TELECOM, SPOTLIGHT ON THE BUSINESS PLAN
Another test of great importance for the Italian market concerns Telecom Italia (+2,3% last week): the 2016 accounts approved on Friday show a significant cost cut (-600 million in the first nine months, target already set for 2018) combined with a modest drop in revenues (15,07 billion), a combination that resulted in a double-digit increase in Ebitda: 8,018 billion euros, up 14,4% (+15,4% on an organic basis, +20,6%, including extraordinary charges). Net financial debt amounted to 25,119 billion thanks to the sale of Sofora, the controlling holding company of Telecom Argentina, and the capital strengthening, linked to the conversion into shares of the 1,3. XNUMX billion.
