“If we are convinced that there is more value we do not have never excluded the possibility of relaunching the takeover bid on Banco Bpm”, but since the operation was announced “what happened is a negative development, not positive". The CEO of Unicredit said it clearly, Andrew Orcel, speaking at the Morgan Stanley European financials conference 2025.
Unicredit, Banco Bpm and the unknown Danish Compromise
What is the “negative development” the manager is referring to? The green light from the Bank’s shareholders to the construction and relaunch of the takeover bid on Anima before the ECB's response on the application of the Danish compromise. Before the meeting, moreover, Orcel had sent out a clear warning: the increase in price and the renunciation, in whole or in part, of the conditions of the offer or even just one of them (read precisely Danish Compromise ed.) could have “determined the resolution or ineffectiveness” of Unicredit's offer on Piazza Meda. But the relaunch came anyway, Banco Bpm's takeover bid for Anima started on Monday and the knot relating to the Danish compromise has not yet been untied, even if the CEO of the bank Joseph Chestnut On Tuesday he reassured everyone, intervening right from London "We are sure that the green light from the ECB will arrive, also because we are already a financial conglomerate under the umbrella of the Danish Compromise, it is just a matter of adding something”.
“With the Danish Compromise the “Anima” transaction has a return on investment of over 15% without consuming much capital, but Without the Danish Compromise the return on investment is 11% and consumes billions of capital,” Orcel explained. In the second case, “what we would buy would be much less capitalized than previously thought” and therefore “if it happens it is not a positive element, but a negative one”. Without the Danish Compromise, Orcel noted, there would be “a significant dilution of the return on investment".
Orcel: “We will decide on Banco Bpm at the end of the operation”
Orcel then clarified that he expected the last authorizations to the Ops "at the end of this month” and that therefore “the offer period could be any time between the first week of June and the beginning of July”.
Any decision on the revision of the terms or the withdrawal of the offer could be taken up to two days before the closing and therefore, he continued, “it would be totally it's irrational for us to make speeches on what to do before we get close to closing”. “Then we will decide whether there is value in doing the operation altogether and whether there is any reason to review the price – he concluded -. If so, we will do it, otherwise not”. In the meantime, it is hoped that news on the Danish compromise will arrive from Frankfurt that could be decisive.
Orcel on Commerzbank: “Patience is the most important thing”
At the Morgan Stanley conference in London, Orcel also spoke about the second major operation involving Unicredit: the Commerzbank takeover. On this front, "the patience at this moment it's the most important thing,'” said the manager.
A few days ago, Piazza Gae Aulenti obtained the green light from the ECB to rise to 29,9% of the German bank "and this it's a positive factor”, the CEO clarified. “We are waiting for other approvals, some of which are taking longer than we expected”, he added, noting then that “it could take months”. “Just to have all the approvals we will reach the summer or early autumn”, he noted again, specifying that “it is one thing to have 30%, another is a possible aggregation” for which it is also necessary to “start discussions with the German government, when it is formed”.
At that point it will also be a question of considering the value of the operation: “Since we started buying the bank, it has doubled in value and therefore it is a different transaction,” Orcel pointed out, specifying however that “the question is not whether it has doubled in value but whether this doubling is justified or not”. Also because in the meantime UniCredit can count on a “significant” implicit capital gain on its share. If the conditions for the M&A are not met, the bank will therefore be able to “stay put” until 2027 and reap the benefits of Commerzbank’s plan, if it is implemented, or “sell by exercising our put options and return the capital to the shareholders”.
