Donald Trump had promised during the election campaign that his first move as president would be the denunciation (followed by immediate sanctions) against China for currency manipulation. Yesterday, by contrast, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said Washington would not take any action before the evaluation of the administration's offices which, as always, will conclude in late April. Shortly after, however, Trump himself reiterated that, in his opinion, "China is a great champion in currency manipulation".
In short, it is increasingly difficult to understand the real intentions of the US administration. Even observers note that, beyond the president's outings, a more traditional and prudent attitude is prevailing. Meanwhile, Wall Street is patiently awaiting the tax reform that has already been announced many times. “It will arrive by August – Mnuchin promises, moving his promises forward in time – But it will be truly significant. The focus will be on tax cuts for the middle class and businesses."
The market continues to believe it. Indeed, the indices recorded a new leap after Trump's new meeting with the VIPs of the economy from which no news emerged except for a promise: "I will bring back millions of lost jobs to America". Now the spotlight shifts to February 28, when Trump will address a message to Congress and the Senate meeting in joint session. In the meantime, we are moving forward on the wave of trust, a commodity that does not abound in Europe, Italy above all. But the success of Unicredit's capital increase, 99,8% subscribed, demonstrates that, faced with transparent and credible operations, the market responds.
DOW JONES: TENTH RAISE IN A ROW. TESLA WHICH
Weak closing for Asian stocks at the end of a positive week. Tokyo drops by 0,2%, Shanghai -0,4%. The drop in raw materials weighs on Sydney (-0,6%).
The American markets are positive, supported by Mnuchin's forecasts: in 2017, said the new head of the Treasury, GDP will grow by 3%. The Dow Jones rose by 0,17% (tenth consecutive session up, new record since 1987) the S&P index by 0,04%. NASDAQ -0,43%.
The macro data is in line with expectations. Weekly claims for unemployment benefits totaled 244, slightly above the 240 expected from 238 the previous week. In the real estate sector, the house price index rose (+0,4%). Analysts had expected a 0,5% increase.
Matteo Renzi's Wednesday visit to the Californian Tesla factory did not go well for Elon Musk. The stock fell 6,41% despite announcing a declining net loss and saying the mass-market Model 3 sedan will be in production by September with plans to sell 5 a week (priced at 35 dollars). Operators, skeptical after the sudden resignation of CFO Jason Wheeler, fear a possible capital increase to support the project.
The accounts of L Brands, owner of Victoria's Secret (-15,8%), worst stock in the S&P index, are disappointing.
THUD OF TENARIS (-3,7%). THE SAIPEM ACCOUNTS TODAY IN THE MARKET SQUARE
Holds back the copper, after the long rally. The gold rush continues at 1.249 dollars an ounce (highest since mid-November), doped by expectations of a recovery in inflation.
Oil returns to rise thanks to data on US strategic inventories, which grew less than expected. Both crude qualities rose by 1,6%, with Brent at 56,7 dollars a barrel and Wti at 54,4 dollars. On Wall Street, the energy sector marks a rise of 0,5%.
Day of accounts for the Italian securities of the sector. Among the Milanese blue chips, the decline of Tenaris stands out (-3,7%). Investors reacted to the negative net sales, which fell 24% to $1,046 billion.
Saipem (+0,4%) announced closed stock market accounts. A tail of further charges and write-downs for 162 million euros in the last quarter of last year and the weakness of the oil market penalized the result, which closed with a net loss of approximately 2 billion euros, accusing write-downs and reorganization charges for 2,3 billion. But the company can count on a solid order backlog of 14,219 billion. Eni closes at +0,3%
MILAN IN SWING, SPREAD OVER 200 BP
The European Stock Exchanges are still uncertain, conditioned by the expectation of the forthcoming electoral duels. We start in mid-March with the test in Holland. For now, ECB chief economist Peter Praet said, the rise in government bond yields in the euro area and the widening of risk premia among member countries have not had a serious impact on the real economy.
After a fluctuating day in Milan, the Ftse Mib index (-0,35% to 18.819 euros) closed the session down after reaching a maximum of 18.997 points and a minimum of 18.811 points,
The other continental markets were also weak, with the sole exception of Madrid which closed with a timid increase (+0,17%). Minus signs for Frankfurt (-0,42%), London (-0,42%) and Paris (-0,09%).
The bond market is still suffering. The Btp/Bund spread rose over 200 basis points (from 195 on the previous day). The Italian 2,23-year rate ended the session at 2,21% from the previous 2,26%, after rising to XNUMX% in the morning.
THIS MORNING AUCTION BOT. MONDAY 10 BILLION IN THE MEDIUM-LONG TERM
Today the auction of 6-month BOTs for 6 billion will be held: on the gray market of Mts the title was traded yesterday at a yield of -0,28%, just over the -0,286% of the January auction. Yesterday the Treasury placed the maximum amount of 3,75 billion euros of Ctz and the two Btpei in May 2022 and September 2026. The yield of the December 2018 Ctz returned positive, to 0,029% from -0,071% in the auction from a month ago.
The medium-long offer on Monday will be substantial, up to 10 billion on five bonds between 5 and 10 years, including the new five-year March 2022.
MUSTIER, MISSION ACCOMPLISHED. SUBSCRIBED TO 99,8% OF THE MAXIMUM INCREASE
99,8% of the Unicredit capital increase (+12.968.720.936,60%) for a total of 1 billion euro was subscribed for a total of 13 euro. The unexercised rights, equal to 1.469.645 units, will be offered on the Stock Exchange from 27 February to 3 March next, unless the offer is closed in advance. The unsubscribed 0,2% of new shares has a value of just over 30,9 million.
A complete success, therefore, for the managing director Jean-Pierre Mustier and for his business plan. The capital gap has therefore been filled and the bank will be able to pay the coupon on the Additional Tier 1 securities maturing in 2021. But the success of the operation goes much further, because it can mark a change in attitude towards Italy and its banking system and a return of confidence in the country. Berenberg's Buy promotion arrived in the morning (target price raised to 15 euros from 12 euros).
The Italian sector index closed unchanged, against the -1,13% of the sector in Europe, conditioned by the accounts of Barclays and HSBC which fell sharply after the results.
Frena Intesa (-0,75%). Bper Banca (-1,7%) and Ubi (-1,2%) were also negative. On the other hand, Mediobanca (+0,4%) and Banco Bpm (+0,6%) are gaining. CEO Giuseppe Castagna is not in favor of using Atlante 2 funds for the recapitalization of Pop Vicenza and Veneto Banca. “We have already voted against this hypothesis in Atlante 1, so it seems quite obvious that we are not in favour,” replied Castagna regarding the hypothesis of transferring Atlante 2 resources from NPLs to the recapitalization of the two Veneto banks.
TLC AT THE TOP, TELECOM TAKES FLIGHT
Glory day for the TLCs. The Eurostoxx Tlc index is the best today with a rise of 1% thanks to the leap of Telefonica which rises by 2,5% in Madrid. The telecommunications group closed 2016 with a net profit down by 14% to 2,36 billion only due to restructuring costs also linked to the voluntary exits of personnel in Spain. Telecom Italia also did very well, with a gain of 2%, at 0,7755 euros. Equita Sim which confirms the buy recommendation on the stock and the target price at 1,27 euros.
LEONARDO OVER 500 MILLION IN PROFITS. FERRARI RENEWS WITH LUXOTTICA
Stm still up (+0,92% to 14,27 euro) which continues to be supported by the favorable judgments of analysts and by product expectations. The group's sensors will also be adopted by the new Tesla. On the Exane share, Bnp Paribas confirmed the outperform recommendation and the target price of 16,3 euros.
Ferrari rises by 0,7% and marks a new all-time high at 62,65 euros. The House of Maranello has signed a multi-year licensing agreement with Luxottica for Ferrari and Ray-Ban eyewear products.
Cnh Industrial (-2,8%) and Fiat Chrysler (-2,7%) are down. Green light from Leonardo's Board of Directors (-0,17%) for the 2017-2021 business plan which forecasts revenue growth of an average annual 3-5% with profitability at 11% already halfway through the plan. In addition, the board of directors examined the preliminary data for 2016 which closed with a net ordinary result of over 500 million euro, more than doubled compared to 253 million in 2015. The orders acquired in 2016 amounted to around 20 billion while the order backlog, at the end of December 2016, reached approximately 35 billion euros, equivalent to almost three years of production.
