After yesterday's white smoke, Piazza Affari curbs enthusiasm while waiting for theofficial investiture of Andrea Orcel by the board of directors, preceded by the nomination committee and the remuneration committee. But behind the apparent calm (-1,2 at 13 pm) the sector is already in fibrillation, anticipating the first moves of the "Cristiano Ronaldo of bankers", the flattering but uncomfortable label for the 57-year-old Roman banker, with a large experience in the field of M&A but who for the first time is facing the leadership of a large commercial structure, moreover in a very delicate moment for the sector, on the eve of the new rules on non-performing loans dictated by European Supervision.
This will be just one of the difficulties that Orcel will have to face to recover at least part of the lost ground in the dispute that separates the two Bigs of the system: the book value of the stock has plunged to 0,3 times, against 0,7 of the led bank by Carlo Messina, a gap that reflects the good state of health of the system bank headed by Carlo Messina, but also the uncertainties of the bank in Piazza Gae Aulenti, held back in the last year by too many uncertainties, from the disposals (see the Fineco stake or the exit from Pioneer) more dictated by the desire to raise cash to pass on to shareholders than to develop one's own growth model, to the delay in the commercial banking business, which emerged with embarrassing clarity when Unicredit has appealed to the Antitrust to challenge the dominant position that Intesa would have assumed with the purchase of Ubi.
This is also explained the choice of Orcel, commissioned by Leonardo Del Vecchio, the first private partner, but piloted by Stefano Micossi, the strong man of the appointments committee who has made no secret of his perplexities in the past in the face of the choices of Jean-Pierre Mustier, who will leave the institution on 10 February next handing over the 2020 financial statements. Now the bank will have to rush to recover the lost time. But this won't be a problem for Orcel, famous for the pace of work that accompanied him throughout his career up to the dispute with the Banco de Santander that Orcel is about to close by settling for, so to speak, a check for 47 million euros instead of the 100 already requested as compensation for the failure to lead the Spanish bank. Also for this reason the banker, who probably can't wait to get back to work, will be satisfied with a more affordable salary (no more than two million). With well-defined goals.
The first commitment in order of time obviously concerns the Monte Paschi game, a bank that Orcel knows very well having been, on behalf of Santander, the architect of the unfortunate acquisition of Antonveneta by the Sienese institute. It is no secret that Del Vecchio, as well as a large part of Unicredit's international shareholders (in the majority) do not hide their perplexities regarding the acquisition of the Sienese bank, although necessary in the eyes of the Treasury (and of the president of the institute Pier Carlo Padoan ). It will take all of Orcel's skill to square the circle, waiting for other mergers that can restore the institute to an adequate critical mass. First of all the meeting with Banca Bpm, the ideal prey for growth in Italy, and with the Emilia pole represented by Bper and Unipol. The rule on DTAs is moreover destined to make any acquisition operation in 2021 more convenient from the point of view of capital.
However, all of this will be discussed only after Orcel takes office in Piazza Gae Aulenti. But, in the meantime, the banker will initiate the change of the bank, guaranteeing new stimuli to a demotivated team. Starting from the digital transformation of the institute based on the BBVA model, another stage in Orcel's career, from which he comes Marco Bressan, protagonist of the development of the Iberian bank platform.
