Important day for the Italian banking scene. Today the assembly of Unicredit is called upon to approve the 13 billion capital increase proposed by the managing director, Jean Pierre Mustier. Meanwhile, Ubi has made a binding offer to the Bank of Italy to take over Banca Etruria, Banca Marche and Carichieti for the symbolic price of one euro after recapitalization.
The other stocks to watch today are those of Mediaset e Tod’s. Il Biscione (yesterday +5,9%) denied any possibility of an agreement with Vivendi, after rumors circulated yesterday that Vincent Bolloré offered Vivendi shares to the Berlusconi family to settle the dispute between the two groups.
As for the company led by Diego Della Valle, the entry of Bonomi still holds the ground with 3%, which yesterday caused the shares to soar by almost 7%, dragging the entire sector: Moncler (+ 3,24%), Ferragamo (+ 0,16%) and cucinelli (+ 0,74%).
But the attention of markets around the world yesterday was focused on United States. “I will be the greatest job creator that God has ever put on the earth, I will try very hard. I can't wait to get started." Thus, with this megalomaniac declaration, Donald Trump presented himself to the world, without adding, in truth, any great news to what he had anticipated in the last month with the sound of tweets. During his speech, Trump confirmed both the construction of a wall on the border with Mexico and the repeal of Obamacare.
And he thanked Fiat Chrysler and Ford again for the new investments in the United States. "If the election hadn't gone the way it did, there wouldn't be these investments and this new climate". On the other hand, a blow has come against the pharma industry: "I want pharmaceutical companies to return to the United States, we need greater competitiveness". But my president remained vague on the subject of weaves and did not speak of new stimuli for the economy. "Basically almost a non-event - commented Giuseppe Sersale of Anthilia - in the sense that we know very little more about Trump's economic policy". It is no coincidence that Wall Street, already euphoric, shut down during the session.
Better, speaking of politics, the setting of Piazza Affari: the Constitutional Court rejected the referendum repeal on the amendments to article 18 introduced with the Jobs act. The question on unlawful dismissals was declared "inadmissible". The Constitutional Court, on the other hand, admitted the questions on vouchers and joint liability in tenders. Thus the risk of reliving another season of uncertainty awaiting the vote is removed.
TRUMP CLUB PHARMA AND MEXICO
The dollar held back against the euro (1,0602 from 1,0454) and the yen (114,79). As a consequence, the Tokyo Stock Exchange was weak (-0,9%), held back by the impact on exports, while the Asia Pacific area markets rebounded: Sydney +0,3%.
Dishes the Chinese markets. Trump has not mentioned any punitive measures against China. On the contrary, Ray Tillerson, during the Senate hearings before his appointment as Secretary of State, threatened to prevent the Beijing navy from accessing the artificial islands created by Beijing off the coast.
The Mexican peso was under pressure again this morning at 21,9132 against the US currency on the back of the threat of tax retaliation for car manufacturers who intend to produce under the Rio Bravo.
Wavy performance of Wall Street: lively at the beginning, then declining before the final leap of faith. The Dow Jones gained nearly 100 index points, or 0,5%, to 19.958 points, just shy of 20.000 points. The S&P500 index rose by 0,3% and the Nasdaq by 0,2%, despite the drop in the biotech index (-2,96%) punished by Trump's words on the price of drugs.
The health sector index closed with a fall of 1%, halving the losses accumulated after the lunge of Trump who accused the pharmaceutical companies of "getting away with it" in setting prices. The hardest hit was Bristol-Myers Squibb -5,3%. Pfizer loses 1,8%. In contrast, Merck gained 3% after the Food and Drug Administration decided to urgently examine one of its anticancer drugs which is showing good results.
In the basket of blue chips, IBM (+1,3%), Goldman Sachs (+1,2%) and Intel (+1,1%) stood out.
OIL HOLDS BACK, SAIPEM BOUNCES
Oil prices are slowing down: Brent at 55 dollars, Wti at 52,18 dollars a barrel. The increase in US stocks and shale oil production offset the first effects of the OPEC cuts.
In Piazza Affari, Saipem rebounds (+2,76%) after the crash on Tuesday, following the exclusion from the conviction buy list of Goldman Sachs, Tenaris +1,13%. Little move Eni -0,04%. Analysts Exane BNP Paribas have decided to promote Eni's recommendation to Neutral from Underperform, raising the target price to 15 euros from 12,50 euros.
Investments in the oil & gas sector restart. According to estimates by energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie, global capital expenditures projected by companies active in oil production and exploration will be $450 billion in 2017, 3% higher than in 2016.
BUSINESS PLACE ADVANCES AFTER THE NO TO THE REFERENDUM
In the afternoon, Piazza Affari celebrated the narrow escape of a new referendum battle, this time on article 18. After an uncertain start, the Milan Stock Exchange closed on the rise thanks to the main thrust of the luxury and asset management companies. The Ftse Mib index closed at 19.487 points, up 0,32%, up like Paris +0,18%, Frankfurt +0,74%.
London gained 0,2% on the day that saw the pound fall to historic lows against the dollar. There are conflicting signals from the United Kingdom: The Bank of England informs that the Brexit effect is now behind us. Conversely, Prime Minister Theresa May reiterated yesterday that she intends to push for a hard Brexit.
Signs of growth for the Italian economy. The OECD leading indicator, which anticipates the changes in economic activity with respect to the trend, signals a stabilization of growth prospects for Italy in November, after the weakening indicated in the previous month.
TODAY THE BTP AUCTION, TOWARDS THE DBRS REPORT CARD
Closing up for the Btp, supported by the rejection by the Constitutional Court of the referendum on article 18. After the Court's pronouncement, the 1,85-year rate went to the minimum of 10% (160 cents below the maximum), while the Btp/Bund spread fell back to XNUMX basis points.
The Treasury is offering today up to 7,25 billion euro of the reopening of 3, 7 and 20-year BTPs, after having placed the expected 7 billion annual BTPs this morning, with the rate falling to the new historic low of -0,250%.
At the end of the session, 3-year and 7-year bonds were trading at 0,12% and 1,21% respectively, both down on the levels of the last auctions in November (0,30% and 1,37%). On the other hand, the twenty-year bond seems to be oriented towards an increase, trading in the 2,57% area, above the 1,91% of the last September auction and above the 2,302% of the syndicated placement last April.
In the meantime, expectation is growing for the update of Italy's rating by the Canadian agency Dbrs, the only one that has so far guaranteed an "A" to the Bel Paese, invaluable for allowing the use of Btp and Cct as counterpart for loans from the ECB to the banks.
Yesterday Germany placed 4 billion of the new 2027-year Bund in February 0,36, with a yield rising to 2027%; Portugal instead placed the new April 3 bond via syndicate, for 4,12 billion, at a yield of XNUMX%.
MEDIASET FLIES, BUT THE AGREEMENT WITH VIVENDI IS A BUFFALO
In great evidence Mediaset (+5,9%) jumped up after the anticipation launched by Bloomberg following the agreement between Fininvest and Bolloré. The Italian group, according to the rumors, would have agreed to receive Vivendi shares in exchange for the participation in the Alfa TV channels. In the evening, however, the Berlusconi group flatly denied the rumor. he states that 'in relation to press rumors, Fininvest specifies that it has not received any offers and that "negotiations do not exist and have never existed with Vivendi".
Telecom Italia is also on the rise +2,17%. Bernstein's analysts raised the target price of the stock to 1,05 euro from the previous 0,95 euro with a confirmed Buy rating.
TOD'S SHINES AFTER THE ENTRY OF BONOMI
Great excitement in luxury following the entry of Bonomi with 3% in Tod's which closed the session with an increase of approximately 7% after having reached an almost double increase during the session up to 13%. Moncler also runs in the wake (+3,24%). Cucinelli (+0,74%) and Ferragamo (+0,16%) are also on positive ground, also driven by the effect of the Patent Box agreement with the Revenue Agency.
CRISIS OF BRANCHES, BOOM OF MANAGEMENT
The crisis of traditional banks favors the collection of managed savings. Banca Mediolanum rises by 5% to 7,52 euros, the highest since May. Equita's analysts underlined how the bank's funding amounted to 722 million against the 450 expected. Azimut marks a rise of 2,6% and Banca Generali of 2%.
Spotlights turned on this morning on the Senate where this morning there will be the first vote on the Christmas "saving-saving" decree, following a request from the 5 Star Movement which has collected the 30 signatures necessary to bring the examination on the requirements of necessity and urgency of the measure. It is a passage which, given the small numbers of the majority in the Senate, is not entirely obvious.
UBI PRESENTS THE OFFER ON THE GOOD BANKS
Ubi (+1,07%) announced this morning that it had presented a binding offer of 1 euro for the purchase of the new Banca Marche, Etruria and Carichieti. The offer is subject to the following conditions: the three banks must get rid of 2,2 billion euros of non-performing loans and must complete a capital increase of 450 million euros. The current owner, the Resolution Fund, will put the money into it. Ubi Banca will proceed with a 400 million euro recapitalization to keep the CET1 ratio above 11%.
First rumors on the characteristics of the 13 billion capital increase which will be approved today in Rome by the Unicredit shareholders' meeting -2,01%. At Consob's request, the institute explained that the operation and the de-risking actions announced as part of the new strategic plan "were not requested by any supervisory authority".
As for the timing of the capital strengthening operation, Unicredit specifies that there are no "formal constraints that impose it to be carried out in the first quarter of 2017", announcing in any case that on 10 January "the verification from the Bank of Italy was obtained the statutory amendments proposed in the context of the transaction are not in conflict with the principle of sound and prudent management and the authorization of the European Central Bank to calculate the shares deriving from the capital increase in the Common equity tier 1”.
Down Bper (-2,5%) and Banco Bpm (-2,23%). Norges Bank dropped to 2,26% of the capital from the 3,646% it held as of 2 January.
FCA STILL UP, TECNOGYM ADVANCES AFTER THE RELEASE OF ARLE
The run of Fiat Chrysler continues (+3%). Yesterday Sergio Marchionne met with analysts in Detroit.
Recordati extends its pace (+3,3%) with the highest price since October at 28,05 euros. This morning Credit Suisse confirmed the Neutral recommendation, adjusting the target to 31 euros from 30 euros. Since the beginning of the year, the stock has gained 4%.
Technogym is projected towards a new record from a quotation of 4,822 euros, with a final increase of 4,5%. The stock absorbed in the best possible way the placement of 11,25% of the capital, sold yesterday by the Arle Capital fund through a flash sale to institutional investors.
