The European banking game gets more complicated, and if in Germany theUnicredit acquires 9% of Commerzbank will be the subject of an internal investigation by the German government, in Spain BBVA's takeover bid for Banco Sabadell is increasingly at risk.
Unicredit-Commerzbank: German government opens internal investigation
Discontent is growing in Germany over the operation that led to Unicredit to acquire 9% of Commerzbank and within the German government “opposition to a potential merger is growing stronger,” writes the Financial Times. According to the newspaper, some high-ranking officials would be very sceptical about such an operation, partly because of the way, considered "underhanded" by Berlin, with which Unicredit accumulated its stake. Another source, highlights Ft, notes that “Unicredit's assault on Commerzbank is perceived as an unfriendly act".
These are the reasons that led to the Berlin government to open internal investigation on the sale of a portion of its shares in Commerzbank, which has allowed the bank led by Andrea Orcel to accumulate a 9% stake and which could become only a starting point on the long road to the merger. The issue will also be considered in the Bundestag next week.
The operation conducted by Unicredit would in fact have German government taken by surprise. Second Bloomberg, the Chancellery would not be satisfied with the outcome of the placement which took place last week under the supervision of the German Financial Agency. The aim of the investigation would therefore be to examine in detail the sequence of events that led to the sale of the shares held by the State and the reason why none of the subjects involved had foreseen the possibility that a strategic investor buy the entire 4,5% stake in Commerzbank. Berlin thought that several institutional investors would come forward to buy small stakes. The Finance Ministry has already been called to report to Parliament on the matter.
It should also be noted that, in an interview with Bloomberg TV, the ceo of Unicredit Andrea Orcell had said that the German government was “well aware” that UniCredit had already accumulated a 4,5 percent stake in Commerzbank at the time of the sale of the state-owned shares.
Meanwhile also the unions get in the way. In a statement, the German trade union Ver.di and the general works council of Commerzbank have asked the federal government to “take a public stand against a takeover of the German institution by UniCredit” and to “work together with employees to create a strong and independent Commerzbank”.
In Spain, Bbva-Sabadell takeover bid stalled
Meantime, in Spain the market is asking Bbva to relaunch Sabadell. According to analysts at Alantra Equities, there is room for the price put on the table to rise by a further 15% compared to the current one set at one newly issued Bbva share for every 4,83 Sabadell shares. Without a possible relaunch (which could also soften the resistance of the Spanish government opposed to the takeover bid) Bilbao bank will be forced to give up, analysts say.
For the moment, however, Bbva is trying to resist the pressure, considering the offer already “very attractive”.
It should also be taken into account that since last May 9, the day in which Bbva launched the hostile takeover bid on Sabadell, the Bilbao bank's stock has lost about 14% of its value, while Sabadell's has gained 9%. "This dynamic - observes Milano Finanza - has already reduced the premium on the current price of the shares implicit in the offer to about 2%".
(Last update: 15.25 pm on 20 September).
