There is a big news that could have a very strong impact on theUnicredit-Commerzbank deal and it's the government crisis that you is open these days in Germany. The Prime Minister Olaf Scholz, which from the very beginning had been furious in its attempts to hinder the merger, defining the Italian bank's moves as "hostile", is preparing to face months of election campaigning. In all likelihood, in fact, after France, Germany will also go to early elections, this time in March. And the question that many in financial circles are starting to ask is the following: "How will all this affect, if it affects, the deal of the year? At the moment there are several hypotheses, all theoretical. In concrete terms, what is known is that the heads of the two institutes will meet for the second time in the early days of next week after having presented both (and on the same day at that), the accounts for the first nine months and the third quarter.
The German government crisis and the Unicredit-Commerzbank deal
“Unfriendly attacks, hostile takeovers are not a good thing for the banks. "The government has positioned itself clearly and says clearly: we believe that it is not appropriate in Europe and in Germany to proceed with unfriendly methods, without any spirit of cooperation and without agreeing anything, to participate in a business". These were the very harsh words spoken by Olaf Scholz when Unicredit had made official that it had acquired a potential 21% stake in Commerzbank and had asked the ECB to increase it to 29,9% (the Eurotower's response has yet to arrive).
A clear, strong opposition, which had raised quite a bit of controversy around Europe, which instead looks favourably on cross-border operations that could strengthen European banks, especially after the evidence contained in the Draghi report on competitiveness. Not by chance, according to rumors, at the ECB Tower in Frankfurt everyone would agree to give the green light to the takeover.
In this context, the question that many are asking at this moment concerns the effects of the German government crisis will be able to have on Unicredit-Commerzbank dossier. On the one hand, there are those who believe that the bank led by Andrea Orcel will have more opportunities to do so given the weakness of the Scholz Government, which in the coming weeks will have to manage all the steps that will lead Germany to the polls. On the other hand, there are those who fear that the affair could become, in a strongly identity-based key, one of the themes of the electoral campaign that will open shortly. If this were the case, Unicredit would risk being sucked into a meat grinder made of political propaganda and superficial protectionism, which would go against everything that Europe hopes for its future made, at least in words, of greater integration and competitiveness.
New Unicredit-Commerzbank meeting next week
In the meantime, however, there is the present. And in the present, the top management of the two banks are meeting again after the first introductory meeting held at the end of September. According to the Sun 24 Hours, which cites as its source a note from Citigroup analysts, the meeting should take place in the early days of next week, although no confirmation has arrived from the two institutes.
It is not known whether the meeting will discuss possible future weddings, but according to the same Citi report, Commerzbank's position has not changed. The institute led by Bettina Orlopp reiterated that a possible merger "can only create value in the case of a friendly approach" considering "the potential synergies and execution risks". Not only that, Commerz also underlined that its profitability ratios are very different from those of HVB, the German subsidiary of Unicredit. Last week, in the conference call following the presentation of the accounts, Orcel had reiterated that "all options are open" and that in any case "the road will be long".
