UNCREDIT, RISE AND COLLAPSE
The definition ofcapital increase, with a 43% discount, did not save the stock on the Stock Exchange where it lost about 9% and dragged down the entire stock market listing, which leaves more than one percent in the field.
TENSION SHIFT IN PARIS. TODAY THE PRICE OF UNICREDIT. 40% OFF
The alarm over sovereign debt, the air of recession in southern Europe, the risk of default for the single currency. These negative factors have overshadowed an equally important reality: the industry is recovering somewhat everywhere. In the first two days of 2012, manufacturing activity beat forecasts in China, Germany, Australia. And especially in the US. In this context, the rally at the beginning of the year from which Piazza Affari is also benefiting is not surprising. In Milan, the Ftse Mib index closed up by 1,24%, London (which recovered yesterday's close) +2,2%, Frankfurt +1,5%. The plus sign also triumphs in New York: Dow Jones +1,47, S&P 500 +1,61, Nasdaq +1,67%. The same goes for Tokyo, the last of the major stock exchanges to have opened the stock year with an increase of 1,27%. The better state of health of the industry is reflected in the increase in raw materials. Petroleum and gold, however, rise due to the Iran syndrome.
The euro was up against the dollar to 1,306 from 1,293 yesterday. The Financial Times reported that hedge funds' bets against the single currency reached record levels in the last week of last year.
WEATHERBAG. PLACE OF BUSINESS TRY POKER. Never before have the market gurus appeared so divided as this year. Adam Parker of Morgan Stanley, the expert who nailed the 2011 trend more than anyone else, predicts a 7,2% drop in the US stock market on the back of Europe's "growing volatility". Byron Wien, who every year tries to guess the future in ten moves, sees on the contrary US GDP growth of 3%, unemployment down to 8%, in addition to the drop in oil to 85 dollars a barrel. The result will be the S&P above 1,400 and a better-than-expected economic situation in Europe as well. Piazza Affari, in the midst of so much uncertainty, is attempting a small record today: four consecutive rising sessions. The premises seem positive, even if the first black clouds gather over the skies of Euroland. Greece lets it be known that it has reached the end of the line: either the European Union gives the go-ahead by the end of January to send the 30 billion already promised, or Athens will leave the euro. Finally, the first offer of the three-year securities of the bailout fund will take place on 5 January: 3 billion to be allocated to Ireland and Portugal.
BTPs IMPROVE: DESPITE THE CITY. Wall Street and the City reopen, copious "short" sales on European government bonds restart. It is now evident that Anglo-Saxon finance has targeted the euro fortress, which recovered yesterday (1,306 against the dollar). Meanwhile, the Financial Times continues to report the weak points of the euro area: today great prominence is given to the amount of short-term bank loans to the ECB, 14,8 billion euro, just to show that "tension remains at levels exceptionally high, even in comparison with the already so turbulent last months”.
The novelty is that, in addition to keeping Milan under pressure, where the spread remains at 496 bp and the 6,85-year yields 10%, speculation is heading towards Paris and Madrid: the yield on French 6-year bonds yesterday, unlike the BTPs, it rose by 3,2 basis points to 2011%, casting a disturbing light on the forthcoming Treasury auctions, already troubled by the possible, indeed probable, loss of the triple A. Meanwhile, Spain has admitted that the 8 public deficit it could exceed 6% of GDP compared to the target set at 165% by the previous Zapatero government: the 202-year BTP/Spanish Bono spread fell to 3 basis points from the 1,9 of the year-end record low. Spread anxiety risks diverting attention from The yield on 2-month BOTs (today 2,85%) fell below 30% for the first time since mid-October, it was 6% on 100 December last and XNUMX% in mid-November when the "country risk" exploded. Nearly XNUMX basis points were recovered in three days.
FED WITHOUT CLOTHES AT BERNANKE'S WILL. Starting from the next meeting of the FOMC, set for January 24-25, the Fed will make public its forecasts on the future of interest rates and other price sensitive decisions. It was announced yesterday on the occasion of the publication of the minutes of the December meeting of the central bank. Ben Bernanke is convinced that greater transparency will serve to convey his recommendations more effectively to the markets. At the end of January, therefore, there will be official confirmation of the US decision to keep interest rates close to zero until mid-2013. In this way, among other things, Bernanke is sheltering himself from the controversies of the election year.
UNICREDIT, THE DISCOUNT INCREASE STARTS MONDAY. The early spring of Mps continues (+3,4%, 7% in two days). More important than the arrival of Fabrizio Viola at the top of the institute, the new industrial plan on which the management is allegedly working is focused on sales and securitizations and aims to avoid a recapitalization. Uncertain during the day, the banks all rose in the final with the exception of Unicredit down 2,5% pending new details on the 7,5 billion capital increase. The board of directors will fix the price of the operation this morning (accounting for 40% on Terrp). The bank, despite the requests of the underwriting syndicate, decided to start the operation as early as Monday 9. Meanwhile, the Blackrock funds reduced their stake to 1,7% from the previous 4,024%.
Intesa +0,4%, Banco Popolare +2,1%, Ubi +2,6%. Bpm+0,1% does not celebrate, despite the arrival of a new strong partner, i.e. the family office manager Raffaele Mincione who lets it be known that he has chosen the bank in Piazza Meda "because I have faith in Andrea Bonomi" - Investindustrial can thus count, in addition to his 9.9, on an allied package of 8,6%: the new managing director will be able to have a very different shareholding behind him from that controlled by the Amici della Bpm.
The Ligresti galaxy continues to drive the entire insurance sector. Fondiaria yesterday gained 11,5% while Premafin, suspended due to excessive increases, recorded a theoretical +25% after closing yesterday at +42,8%. Milan Abs. +6%. Generali +1,8% and Unipol +3% also rose. Mediobanca +0,35% is working in forced stages on the agreement between the Ligresti group (debtor of 1,1 billion to Piazzetta Cuccia) Unipol (exposed for 400 million) and Clessidra. Instead, the alternative pines have faded, including the one that envisaged the intervention of Matteo Arpe's Sator and Carlo Puri Negri.
Among the industrialists, Pirelli marks a rise of 2%, Fiat Industrial +3,5%. Tear in the final for Fiat +3,7% and Finmeccanica +2,1%. Stm achieved an increase of 5%. The jump in oil boosts Eni +1,8%, Saipem +1,3%, Trevi +4,7% and Maire Tecnimont +8,8%. The luxury sector is highlighted with Tod's +5%, Salvatore Ferragamo +1,8% and Luxottica which rises by 1,5%.
