The offer launched by Unicredit on Banco Bpm “is a market operation, after which the Government has the tools to intervene if it finds that the operation does not fall within the scope of thenational interest" The Prime Minister said this Giorgia Meloni, guest of Quarta Repubblica on Rete 4, answering a question about the ops and a possible government intervention.
“This is a file that Minister Giorgetti is following, I trust his judgment on the matter a lot and therefore we are making some absolutely neutral ratings, but in the Italian national interest", he added, underlining that "What we normally have to be careful about is whether the large savings of Italians are controlled by central banks that have their core business in Italy. Because if we don't have this, those savings of Italians will not be reinvested in Italy, so it is an issue on which the Government clearly knows what its mandate is, what is his responsibility and acts accordingly."
Unicredit-Banco Bpm: the next steps
Meanwhile in MY BAG the situation seems to have returned to almost normal, with the shares of the two banks closing yesterday at +1,15% (Unicredit) and -0,57% (Banco Bpm) respectively after the strong volatility of last week. The market is however waiting for the possible countermove by the bank led by Giuseppe Castagna, which could arrive by mid-January 2025. A reaction that could also involve Ps, of which Banco Bpm already owns 5%. However, shareholders will have to be convinced that the operation in question will bring more value than the one proposed by Unicredit.
In short, the road is long and the outcome uncertain, but the banking sector is starting to prepare for one of the possible consequences of the potential aggregation between UniCredit and Banco Bpm: the arrival on the market, in the event of success of the takeover bid launched by Piazza Gae Aulenti, of the branches which will have to be given up for reasons antitrust. Second Radiocor, many small and medium-sized institutions have the dossier on the table, so much so that some have already assigned an exploratory mandate to advisors to study where the limits will be exceeded concentration limits of the market and therefore in which areas of the country it will be possible to hunt for branches to strengthen one's network. The Antitrust's assessment concerns concentration on a provincial basis and according to the press agency that cites market sources, the provinces in which it is possible to hypothesize the exceeding of the thresholds are about ten, in Veneto above all, but also in Lombardy, Emilia Romagna, some areas of Piedmont and Sicily.
In this context, Unicredit will have to file the offer document with Consob by December 13, while there will be time until April to think about possible adjustments. In the meantime, the bank led by Andrea Orcel will start the consultations with Banco Bpm members, starting from Crédit Agricole (9,2%) to the Consultation Pact (6,5%) up to the Caltagirone group (2%) and the institutional ones.
Unicredit: Fitch confirms rating, positive outlook
The news from yesterday evening is that, even after the exchange offer on Banco BPm, Fitch Ratings has affirmed UniCredit's Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) and Senior Preferred rating at “BBB+” with a positive outlook. The rating therefore remains one step above the Italian sovereign rating.
Fitch Ratings expects that a potential transaction with Banco Bpm will not change the group's credit profile to an extent that would impact its ratings. All other UniCredit ratings have also been affirmed by the rating agency.
