Il 2025 by Unicredit it will be a real banking earthquake, with M&A e strategic alliances that promise to turn the tables. In the coming weeks, according to Milano Finanza, the bank led by Andrea Orcel is preparing to sign a agreement not to be underestimated with Prelios, destined to revolutionize the management of non-performing loans. The teams of consultants and lawyers are working at a fast pace to define the final details and sign a partnership that will see Prelios, led by the former number one of Unicredit Fabrizio Palenzona, take the place of Dovalue, with a nice package of bad loans between 800 million and one billion euros. But the challenge does not stop there: saving managed, the game on Bpm bank and the tenacious resistance of Giuseppe Castagna with Anima are just the beginning. In the meantime, the shadow of Ps continues to be felt. Crédit Agricole look closely, BlackRock could play the decisive card, while the Italian government prepares to intervene. Who will have the final say?
Prelios instead of Dovalue: Orcel's move
The process to arrive at this alliance was long and meticulous: from the end of 2023 until the end of last year, work on the operational details was intense. Since his arrival at Piazza Gae Aulenti, Orcel has implemented a radical rethinking of strategic alliances, with the aim of simplifying the network of partnerships and making them better align with the group's industrial plan. The agreement with Prelios, which is now under the control of Ion group by Andrea Pignataro, represents a significant change of direction. Not only because of the importance of managing impaired loans in an increasingly competitive banking environment, but also because of the interruption of along and consolidated alliance with Dovalue, which has its roots in 2015, when Unicredit sold its subsidiary Unicredit Credit Management Bank (Uccmb) to Fortress, giving birth to what is now Dovalue.
And if the world of bad loans is one of Orcel's priorities, it is certainly not the only area in which the Roman banker has decided to get his hands on. In September, he announced the internalization of Bancassurance Life activities in Italy, taking a big step back on the agreements with Cnp Assurances e Allianz. A move that demonstrates how the CEO of Unicredit is seeking to strengthen direct control over key sectors, starting with the life branch, in a period of great transformation for the group.
Unicredit, the agreement with Amundi: the game that will be played until 2027
But it doesn't end here, because there is also a game being played on the front of managed savings, a complicated chapter that is yet to be written. In 2027: Unicredit-Amundi agreement expires, which gained traction after the French giant's acquisition of Pioneer in 2017. There have long been rumors of a possible take the exit (uscita) early from the partnership, and Orcel, as always, seems to have a plan in mind. The end of the collaboration with Amundi would represent a great challenge for the French bank, which would lose a strategic ally in the Italian market. This is why, in the context of the ongoing negotiations with Crédit Agricole for the ops on Banco Bpm, the top manager could leverage a renewal of the agreements with Amundi, with methods and timing still to be defined. In mid-January, in fact, Orcel will meet Philippe Brassac, CEO of Crédit Agricole, for a meeting that could be crucial to establish future moves.
To further complicate the situation, there is the Cinzia Tagliabue returns to the top of Amundi Italia. Tagliabue, a senior manager of the French group, could play a key role in future discussions, giving an extra boost to the negotiations. And it has not escaped anyone's attention that the Italian government is keeping an eye on the situation. In particular, there is attention on how a possible strengthening of Crédit Agricole in management could impact Anima, an Sgr that holds a significant portion of Italian public debt, about 5%.
