Financial analysts positively evaluate the probable merger between Intesa Sanpaolo and Ubi Banca, following thepublic exchange offer launched on 17 February by the bank led by Carlo Messina. In recent days, the judgment of the two US rating agencies, Moody's and Fitch, was the first to arrive. On the one hand, Moody's confirmed Intesa Sanpaolo's rating (baa3) and Bper (another bank involved in the transaction, ba2) and instead submitted the rating of Ubi (ba2) to a review for updating.
Even more explicit Fitch, according to which Ubi Banca is in a condition in favor of a possible upward adjustment of creditworthiness (BBB-)following the offer. According to Fitch analysts, the acquisition will end up strengthening Intesa Sanpaolo's competitive position in Italy, bringing the new group's market share to around 20%. Fitch also estimates that Intesa Sanpaolo's management is able to achieve cost and revenue synergies "in the light of what has been done so far" and that the operation will end up "by strengthening the sustainability of the group's performance".
More recently, the analysis of Exane Bnp Paribas has also arrived, which for Intesa Sanpaolo confirmed the Outperform rating and the target price at 2,9 euros per share (today the title travels around 2,35 euros). “The acquisition of Ubi will increase the earnings per share of Intesa shareholders by 4-5% – write the analysts of Bnp Paribas -, it will lock in dividends for 2020 and 2021 and strengthen the prospects for subsequent dividends. By our calculations the ROI is comfortably over 10%”.
As for Ubi Banca, Exane believes that the shareholders of the bank currently led by Letizia Moratti and Victor Massiah will double their cumulative dividends in the 2020-2023 period. “Since, in our view, the tender offer will be successful, we update the stock to Outperform with a target price of 4,9 euros per share, equal to 1,7 times the target set by Intesa Sanpaolo”.
Meanwhile, Cattolica Assicurazione increased its stake in Ubi Banca, bringing it above 1%. This was announced by the company, specifying that it has also joined the Pact Car.
“Cattolica has received acceptance from the CAR Committee, Ubi's reference shareholders' committee, in relation to the accession to the consultation agreement concerning Ubi shares – reads the note – Cattolica has increased, through purchases on the stock market carried out during the last two weeks, the stake held in Ubi from the previous 0,5% held for a long time to 1,01%, exceeding the 1% threshold set by the agreement for the appointment of a member of the aforementioned Shareholders' Committee of reference".
