«Fusse che fusse la vorta bbona», repeated the bartender from Ceccano, alias Nino Manfredi. But he lived inera of the economic miracle, when the European and Italian growth rate was at Chinese levels. And when it wasn't difficult to make one's dreams come true, also because they were very modest. «Two clubs plus services, many installments, few vices» sang Jannacci, text by Franco Fortini (not just any lyricist!).
Today it would really be a miracle if: the vaccines worked and were inoculated in a few months across the population, people would go back to living as they did in the pre-Covid era (perhaps with a few more grains of salt regarding some climatic and social repercussions of their behavior), borders would reopen and travelers could flow freely between the five continents .
Without daring to dream so much and without bothering Pedro Calderón de la Barca («La vida es sueño»), it already seems miraculous that vaccinations have begun. And that can help a lot regain confidence. That is certainly not the prevailing sentiment. But others, very little Christmas: anger, frustration, pain, tiredness (sorry: fatigue, c'est plus chic), revenge against the ruling classes. In short, quite the opposite of what would help to look ahead with optimism.
However, the preparation of vaccines in record time (a miracle of science aided by information technology) is not the only miracle we are witnessing. The resilience of the US economy (at least so far) in the face of the viral storm it appears by grace received. But we doubt that on the other side of the Atlantic they know what ex-votos are.
Indeed, while the Asian capability (and also of nations of western origin but close to the island of the day after) to better control the infections goes well with a superior economic performance, as has been observed in the past Lancet, the spread of infections in the United States should have raised fears of a recessionary relapse.
Instead, the locomotive Number One he doesn't give up and advances without even huffing too much. Even if there was some sign of decline in restaurant dinners. How can this trend be explained? Apart from the structural factors (the underlying dynamics are greater), it must be said that two circumstances they played in the USA's favor: Thanksgiving day, which is almost as good as a Christmas, bringing families together around the poor turkeys; and the enormous mass of savings that the private sector has accumulated thanks to much more substantial aid, compared to the fall in GDP. And again, the restrictions on social activities have not been used as a sort of yo-yo, but kept on average high, albeit insufficient, as evidenced by the surge in infections. On the contrary: the latter has prompted consumers to hurry to make purchases and travel, fearing the arrival of new restrictions, as is happening in some federal states.
On the other hand the double correlation restriction-contagion and restriction-conjuncture in services it is proving increasingly narrow. Not only does tightening work to reduce infections, but easing also spurs them on; as demonstrated by the resurgence of the virus in the UK, France and Switzerland.
On the other hand, the dynamics of the tertiary sector responds directly to social distancing measures. Almost a Pavlovian reflex. A sign that the economy is ready to restart as soon as we get rid of the virus.
The data of the last month have confirmed what has been repeating for some time Lancet: manufacturing is much better, also because the preferences of families, who are denied experiential consumption (cinemas, theatres, travel, evenings in restaurants), are consoled with material goods (excluding clothing, except perhaps underwear).
What is new, rather, is that companies (whose balance sheets have been well preserved by governments and central banks) have started to increase investments again. But how, it will be said, with all the unused production capacity and with the great uncertainty about future demand? True, but there is an even more powerful spring: technological change. That the crisis has accelerated. Towards industry 4.0, e-commerce, electric vehicles, and any other devilry, change is showing us at the speed of Ridolini (for those who don't know him: Larry Semon, star of silent cinema, in which the movements were paroxysmal) .
And no entrepreneur worthy of the name can afford to fall behind. If anything, one step ahead of its competitors. All the more so global value chains they are not only an elegant expression to indicate the international commercial exchanges of industrial semi-finished products, but they mean deep ties between companies, i.e. entrepreneurs, as Giacomo Becattini would have said, who exchange, together with purchases and sales, also information, on what one does and what the other does. "And if they do it, I can't be outdone."
Therefore, women and men of good will, celebrate Christmas cultivating not only peace but also more than a solid hope of a more solid recovery.
