From the 19 July the UK will say goodbye to almost all restrictions. Boris Johnson has decided to go his way, despite the accusations, criticisms and calls for caution pronounced by many members of the scientific community. But above all despite the strong increase in infections due to the ever wider diffusion of Delta variant and the further increase that the Prime Minister himself already takes for granted. The forecasts of the British Government speak of at least 50 positive cases per day by the end of July (today they are around 25, in mid-May they were 2), while the new Minister of Health, Sajid Javid, has even estimated to reach the 100 new daily infections during the summer. “Sadly – added Johnson during the last press conference – we will have to go back to the perspective of having a higher number of deaths from Covid-19”. Although the forecasts are therefore nefarious, after the one-month extension established on 14 June, the day on which Downing Street was originally supposed to lift the restrictions, this time the British government is not backing down an inch.
THE NEW RULES OF THE UNITED KINGDOM FROM 19 JULY
In thirteen days the obligation to wear masks will cease, even indoors, in the vast majority of daily activities, even if more precise rules will be communicated next week. You will no longer have to respect any physical distancing and the capacity limits currently imposed on bars and restaurants will fall. Those who want to participate in weddings and funerals will no longer have to respect any restrictions, as will those who will take part in major events (there is no green pass, to be clear). Discos will also reopen and it will be possible to gather at the home of friends and relatives without any stake (today the limit is a maximum of 6 people who do not live together). In the coming days, the Government will communicate new decisions on schools and means of transport.
The new rules will apply throughout England, but not in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland who, enjoying autonomy in health matters, have preferred to adopt a more prudent approach.
VACCINES AND FEW DEAD: JOHNSON'S MOTIVATIONS
The increase in infections recorded in the United Kingdom in recent weeks due to the spread of the Delta variant and despite the success of the vaccination campaign is frightening the whole world. All, except Boris Johnson who has decided to bet on another figure: that relating to i deaths caused by the Covid-19 disease, remained very low (on July 5 new cases exceeded 27 thousand, the deaths were 18) thanks to vaccines. The number of hospitalizations is also contained: 1.900 today, compared to over 25 in December.
In Great Britain, over 50% of the population has already received both doses of the anti-Covid vaccine, while 85% of citizens have been given at least one dose. “If we don't move forward now when we have clearly done so much with the vaccination campaign to break the link [between Covid-19 and deaths, ed] when should we do it? Otherwise we would run the risk of reopening in a very difficult moment when the virus has an advantage, in the cold months, or of having to postpone everything until next year".
In short, Boris Johnson's bet is clear: thanks to vaccines, the United Kingdom is succeeding and will succeed contain the number of deaths and hospitalizations in the hospital, despite the already expected increase in infections. Against this background, summer helps. So better to drop the restrictions now than to do it when colder temperatures favor further spread of the virus.
However, there is another aspect to take into consideration: given that the increase in the number of deaths follows that of infections by three or four weeks, at the moment the forecasts on deaths are not certain (and in fact in this case Downing Street has not released estimates). What the Prime Minister passes off as a certainty for the moment is therefore not, even if in all likelihood the effect of vaccines will help contain the data on deaths, avoiding the numbers recorded during the first and second waves.
RISK OR CALCULATED RISK?
During an interview with Times Radio, Professor Calum Semple, a Government adviser and member of Sage (the scientific advice group for emergencies), said that the decision to drop the restrictions "it's not a gamble, it's more of a calculated risk. We have good data indicating that we are gradually breaking the link between total cases and severe cases in the hospital. Looking at last night's numbers, 88% of people currently in hospital for Covid-19 have not been vaccinated or received the vaccine without having time to develop immunity, becoming infected before the 28 days required to trigger the immune reaction. There are very strong signs that vaccination is working and protecting the vast majority of people."
Harsh criticisms of Johnson's policy have instead come from other members of the scientific community, especially as regards the choice to eliminate the obligation to wear masks indoors: "It has been demonstrated that masks reduce infections and we cannot understand why reason we would like to deliberately increase the number of infections,” said Chaand Nagpaul, president of the British medical association, defining "meaningless" the choice of the Government. Accusations also from the main unions who fear an increase in infections among workers, especially for those who work in contact with the public in shops or in transport. If consumers don't wear masks, workers will be at risk. The Trades Union Congress said it was "unacceptable for a government to delegate its responsibilities to individuals or employers."
