The regulation on the Recovery Fund will go into the Official Journal on February 18th. For the Union, this is the most formidable injection of resources into the real economy since the beginning of the history of European integration. According to the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, the Next Generation is “something bigger than a simple fund, it is a strong message of solidarity and trust in the EU”. On the other side of the English channel, the British however will probably not have extraordinary plans to revive the domestic economy and will have to deal with the great unknowns of Brexit. While it is true that the vaccination plan against Covid is proceeding expeditiously, all official analyzes conclude that Brexit will have negative effects on the British economy.
Inflation will also rise again, due to the exchange rate and tariffs. «We are still divided between "remainers" and "brexiters", but in the public debate Brexit has lost its centrality, we only talk about the pandemic and its health and economic consequences. “We are where we are”, we are now coming to terms with the reality outside Europe», he observes Christopher Hill, Emeritus Professor of International Relations at Cambridge and author of the essay “The Future of British Foreign Policy: Security and Diplomacy in a World after Brexit”.
What is today, after just over a month, the prevailing opinion of the British ruling classes on Brexit?
“From a political point of view, Boris Johnson has his party in hand and for the next four years he will be able to do what he wants. We had some problems in the port of Dover in January but everything seems to be running smoothly now. By now the matter is in the hands of the next generations, surely the young British consider themselves European and this trend is stronger than Brexit. We will see the results of the youth vote in the next elections in four years, but it is also true that in politics it is very easy to forget the past".
Covid evidently leads to a centralization of the discussion on the pandemic emergency, but the great knots of tariff barriers and exports are starting to emerge: the endless queues of hundreds of trucks at the port of Dover are symbolic. Furthermore, the real British economy has yet to touch the consequences of Brexit.
“In a while, we will be able to analyze the data on the economic and financial cost of Brexit not only as forecasts, with the unfortunately risk that they will be very penalizing for the United Kingdom. The British Treasury has spent enormous sums to counter the pandemic, the effects on the deficit and on the possibility of spending in the coming months are all to be evaluated. The risk is that Brexit will become an even secondary problem. The "Brexiters" emphasize the British successes in the distribution of the vaccine and say that Europe is too big and cumbersome to manage such a widespread emergency. It is their further strength to motivate their farewell to Europe”.
Europe, on the other hand, is preparing to distribute gigantic resources in the Old Continent with the funds of the Next Generation Eu, a sort of new Marshall Plan. What response can London put in place for the revival of the British economy?
“Most of the English newspapers and media do not talk about the advantages of the Recovery Fund, only the Financial Times deals with the subject, but it is an elitist means of information aimed at those involved in finance and the economy. The "Brexiters" do not want to know what is happening in Europe now, the "remainers" - and I am one of them - hope for the positive effects of this historic deployment of resources for the economy. As I said before, the London government is occupied only by the pandemic. Boris Johnson and Health Minister Matt Hancock are more cautious in reopening hypotheses, they do not want to have the lives of the British on their conscience. While Rishi Suniak, Chancellor of the Exchequer, is more "open-minded" and more sensitive to the economic crisis. We are between Scylla and Charybdis in this dilemma, or “Between a stone and a hard place” as the Americans say”.
The sovereignists are withdrawing a bit late almost everywhere in Europe, precisely because Brussels is now becoming a spending center and no longer a "bad" enforcer of rules. Is sovereignty also in England, obviously in the English sense, on the defensive?
“There is no Marshall Plan on the horizon in the United Kingdom, we have already spent a lot of money and it is not known whether it will be possible to find new resources. This will be the real problem that will make the difference between the European and British economies in the post-Covid period. Furthermore, I do not believe that Boris Johnson, due to his ideological vision, has the will to ask for more taxes from the British. The sovereignists are already cornered in England, Prime Minister Johnson has taken all the consent of the nationalist Nigel Farage and has "institutionalized" it in the policies of his government. Now Johnson has already put the issue of immigration on the back burner and speaks of a United Kingdom open to the world and to trade. Johnson's sovereignty is visible only in the systematic use of the flag: where a party or government leader speaks, there is always the Union Jack”.
With the presidency of Joe Biden, what will change for Atlantic relations? Will the Atlantic become narrower for London?
“The Prime Minister is hoping it gets much tighter. Bojo had also tried to be a great friend of Donald Trump, now he certainly wants to be a great friend of Joe Biden. But Biden is much smarter, let's keep in mind that he has Irish roots and might be interested in what happens in the lands of his ancestors. I maintain that the destiny of the British is to be Europeans even outside the Union. Boris Johnson himself needs a rich and strong Europe in the future, given that it represents a huge market for the British and an economic partner in any case strategic. But right now he doesn't open much to his "ex-partners". For example, he does not want to recognize the Union office in London as an actual embassy”.
The new Italian prime minister is a leading pro-European, the man who saved the eurozone under the motto "whatever it takes". Mario Draghi at Palazzo Chigi what effect does it have in London?
“A great effect, but only for those who understand politics, for the vast majority of Brits he is a stranger. Mario Draghi is one of the most important European leaders and it will be interesting to see how the technicians will "cohabit" with the politicians, an experiment to which everyone looks favorably".
