By leaving the European Union, the United Kingdom risks a severe recession. How long does it last? Britain's national income could drop 6% by 2030 if the UK actually leaves the EU as a result of the June 23 Brexit referendum. Three days before the start of the referendum campaign, the alarm was sounded by a 200-page report from the Treasury Ministry to be released in the next few hours, anticipated by the media and already contested by Eurosceptics. The report traces the shocking scenario of a Great Britain affected in its vital commercial interests and impoverished in its people for decades, once the hypothetical divorce from Brussels has been consummated.
According to this analysis, the foreseeable contraction of the GDP would translate into an average loss equivalent to 4.300 pounds per year for each British household, as already indicated by the holder of the ministry, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne. In particular, the raising of customs barriers would weigh heavily, with consequences on exports, as well as the drop in foreign investments. While the need for cuts (in health care and only) is not excluded, possible increases in rates and, as a rebound, a surge in widespread real estate loans.
“Let's put it simply: in several years will you be better off or worse off if we leave the EU? The answer – said Osborne – is that we will be worse off and permanently".
The report of the British Treasury will be presented today on Monday but writing in the columns of The Times, the British chancellor spoke of "extraordinary self-harm" in leaving the European Community which above all would damage trade and investments.
Most of the polls indicate a head-to-head between the two sides, for and against the permanence of the UK in the EU, even if the most recent one, published on Monday, shows a 7 percentage point advantage for those in favor of remaining in the assembly European. Pollster YouGov also indicates that 45% of those questioned would back down, preferring to remain in the EU, against 36% of those who were against it if the cost of Brexit weighed on their pockets by 100 pounds a year.
Osborne's latest alarm has naturally provoked replies from supporters of leaving Europe who criticize the minister, and the Cameron government, for presenting estimates that they consider unreliable: "We are not going to try to indicate precise numbers on the economy in 2030 because who is able to say what will happen then?”, said John Redwood, Conservative lawyer and former minister interviewed by the BBC. Brexit supporters counter by saying that by leaving the group of 28 EU members, the UK would instead regain its freedom to negotiate its own trade deals and make a clean break with obligations to abide by complex European rules and regulations .
