According to Brussels the alarm that arrived yesterday from the OECD it is unfounded: Italy is on its way to closing the European infringement procedure for excessive deficits. In the last ones forecasts of the EU Commission, the deficit-GDP ratio of our country, after 3% in 2012, is estimated to fall to 2,9% this year and 2,5% in 2014. The second figure is higher than the forecasts of the Monti government, which in the last Def had estimated a deficit all '1,8% for next year. In both cases, however, the estimates remain below the 3% threshold established by the Maastricht Treaty. Yesterday, however, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development spoke of an Italian deficit of 3,3% in 2013 and 3,8% in 2014.
Despite the reassurances on this front, Europe warns that our country's public debt will continue to rise, setting new historical records. According to the Commission, the figure will reach 131,4% of GDP this year, from 127% in 2012, and 132,2% in 2014.
As for theGDP trend, the Commission cuts the estimate for 2013, bringing it from -1% to -1,3%, in line with the forecast of the Italian government. Also in this case there is a discrepancy with respect to 2014: according to Brussels, next year Italy will grow by only 0,7%, against the +1,3% forecast by the Executive.
The EU explains that there are no clear signs of recovery in the short term, because consumer and business confidence "remains in negative territory, indicating still contracted economic activity in the first half of the year". But the payment of the 40 billion of corporate debt by the state should "support a slight recovery from the third quarter".
As for the labor market, the Italian unemployment rate (which reached 2012% in 10,7 from 8,4% in 2011) will increase to 11,8% in 2013 and 12,2% next year. Previous European estimates spoke of 11,6% and 12% respectively.
