The revision of the treaties and of the European Union is a hypothesis that is increasingly taking shape, so much so that it could already take the stage at the next European Council scheduled in Brussels on 9 December. In fact, diplomatic sources let it be known that "there is very strong German pressure for a precise commitment on the subject of reform of economic governance, which takes the form of a revision of the treaties".
It is therefore not excluded that this is the scenario of the next European summit, preceded by a working dinner the night before. From what has been learned, in fact, a meeting has already been scheduled for the evening of Thursday 8 December. It is still not clear how we would like to revise the treaty, but one thing is certain: if necessary, maximum sharing and above all maximum fairness of the new package will be needed, given that the modification will have to be adopted, signed and ratified by all 27 member countries of the EU. But the climate is one of resignation to the fact that a modification of the treaty is now inevitable. In fact, it seems that this is the only possible move for Germany to accept the creation and introduction of Stability bonds, the Community bonds that would replace (in whole or in part) the government bonds of the 27 member states. However, Berlin would like more rigor, through stricter parameters and EU controls on the budgets of the member countries.
What appears to be taking shape, therefore, is what until now was believed to be rumors and indiscretions of a Franco-German agreement precisely on the rewriting of the treaties. Diplomatic sources do not hide that "it's going to be a busy week", because in addition to tomorrow's and Wednesday's meetings (respectively Eurogroup and Ecofin), work is being done at the same time on the "preparation of the European Council and the decisions that will have to be taken there". However, the times for a possible modification of the treaties are not immediate. “At best it would take a year”, diplomatic sources underline. Assuming that the process starts next week, the situation would be reviewed in March and the European Convention would meet to examine the reform proposal and draft the recommendations to be presented to the Intergovernmental Conference, which would not meet before of September.
Therefore, the treaty should be revised by the end of 2012, which, however, becomes operational only when all member countries have ratified it. Which could further lengthen the time. Then there remains the unknown factor linked to the role of the European Central Bank: in fact, there are those who would like "a more explicit commitment" from the ECB. There are still many knots to untie, but the most accredited scenario at the moment for the next European Council would seem to foresee an ok to a job 'spread' over time: for the short term it is thought to implement the measures adopted on 26 and 27 October last, on the occasion of the last European Council; for the long term, the revision of the treaty with the introduction of Stability bonds is considered.
