Il Italian GDP will grow by 0,6% this year and by 1,2% in 2015, after the -1,9% recorded in 2013. The public deficit, on the other hand, will always remain below the Maastricht threshold of 3%: at 2,6% in 2014 and 2,2% in 2015. These are the economic forecasts for our country published today by the European Commission, which revised it slightly downwards the estimates released in November, which spoke of a GDP growth of 0,7% in 2014 and 1,5% in 2015.
Furthermore, according to the latest estimates by Brussels experts, Italy will register a “primary surplus stabilized structure" at 4,5% of GDP in the three-year period 2013-2015, while the debt it will continue to increase this year, reaching a peak of 133,7% of GDP (against 132,7% in 2013), to then finally begin to decline in 2015, at 132,4%.
The Commission notes that the expected peak for 2014 incorporates the payment of the commercial debt arrears of the Public Administrations (for a total value equal to 1,6% of GDP) and the revenues related to privatizations (equal to 0,5% of GDP ), while the slight decline expected for 2015 will be determined "by the high primary surplus and nominal GDP growth".
On the labor side, Brussels expects that in 2014 the unemployment Italy will rise to 12,6% (from 12,2% last year) and will drop to 12,4% in 2015. Theoccupation, on the other hand, after last year's heavy -1,8% it will mark a plus 0,1 percent in 2014 and a plus 0,5 percent in 2015.
As for theinflation, will slow down further, but there should be no risk of deflation: the rate is 0,9% for this year and 1,3% for the next (same level as in 2013).
EUROZONE: GDP 2014 +1,2%, 2015 +1,8%
Compared to Italy, the opposite is true for the entire Eurozone. In fact, the Commission has revised upwards the estimates on the growth of the euro area: now a +1,2% of the GDP on 2014 and +1,8% on 2015. Both values are 0,1 percentage points higher than the estimates released on 5 November last.
“The recovery in Europe is gaining ground – commented the vice-president of the commission Olli Rehn, head of economic affairs -. Strengthening domestic demand this year should help us achieve more balanced and sustainable growth. The worst of the crisis may be behind us, but this shouldn't sound like complacency, as the recovery remains modest. To make it more solid and create more jobs, we must continue with structural reforms”.
Il deficit of the overall budget of the euro area is expected to fall to 2,6% of GDP in 2014, while the debt-GDP will mark a marginal increase to 95,9%. The most serious problem remains that of the elevated one unemployment, which in any case, from the 12,1% reached in 2013, should mark a slight reduction to 12% in 2014, and then drop to 11,7% next year.
