"The economic recovery in the euro area has stalled, now there is the risk of a new recession“. The prospects are "bleak". The one made this morning by is a dramatic announcement Olli Rehn, head of EU economic affairs. The European Commission has drastically cut forecasts for economic growth in the'Eurozone: +2012% of GDP is expected for 0,5, against the +1,7% indicated six months ago.
Surveys on the banking sector indicate that the dynamics of access to credit in Europe "is getting worse - added Rehn -. The crucial factor for regaining economic growth and employment in the Eurozone is to restore confidence in the sustainability of public finances and the financial system, accelerating reforms to revive Europe's growth potential”. Rehn has therefore promised to use for this purpose all the new tools that the countries of the euro area and the EU have equipped themselves with.
In particular, Italy faces a period of stagnation. Our country next year will grow by just 0,1%, while in 2013 the GDP will rise by 0,7%. Again in 2012, the public deficit will drop to 2,3% of GDP and, with unchanged policies, it will drop further to 1,2% the following year. A balanced budget will therefore remain a mirage. According to the same forecasts, the Italian public debt will remain stable in 2012 at 120,5% of GDP, falling to 118,7% the following year.
Brussels estimates that the Italian unemployment rate, also in the period under examination, will suffer only a marginal deterioration, rising from 8,1% of the workforce forecast for this year to 8,2% estimated stable for the next two years with unchanged policies.
In sharp retreat inflation, with the consumer price index falling from the 2,7% forecast for 2011 to 2% in 2012 and 1,9% the following year. The current account deficit will also improve, going from 3,6% of GDP to 3% to 2,3% in the same period.
"It is clear that only a broad and comprehensive package of structural reforms can relaunch Italy again", explained Rehn, reiterating the need to intervene on labour, tax authorities and public administration employees. In this sense, the commissioner asked our country to clarify "shortly" the times for applying the measures promised in the letter of intent, which however “it does not go far enough on interventions to increase competition, nor on pension reform".
As for the impact of the increases in yields on Italian government bonds, the European Commission judges it "not dramatic", but it will still be "significant" - and in a relatively short time - on the country's financial conditions and on its real economy . For our country, concludes Rehn, it is "fundamental to restore the political capacity to make decisions".
