Italy's 2020 GDP will drop by 9,5%, then rebound 6,5% in 2021. This year, in the entire EU, only Greece will do worse than our country, where the decline will reach 9,7%. For the entire Eurozone, on the other hand, a fall in GDP of 7,7% is expected in 2020 (-7,4% in the Union of 27), followed by a recovery of 6,3% next year ( same data for the entire EU). The data is contained in spring economic forecasts published on Wednesday by the European Commission, which speaks of a "recession of historic proportions".
Brussels' estimates on Italian GDP for 2020 are worse than both inserted by the government in the Def (-8%), both of those released by the IMF (-9,1%). On the other hand, the prospects for 2021 are better (+4,7% according to the Italian government, 4,8% according to the Monetary Fund).
The Community Executive provides for the report deficit/GDP in 2020 a surge up to 11,1% - the highest deficit in the entire Union - which in 2021 should almost halve, to 5,6%.
As for the debt, will jump this year by more than 20 percentage points, to reach 158,9% of GDP, before falling to 153,6% next year. Again, only Greece will do worse, with a 2020 debt-to-GDP at 196,4%.
On the side of prices, Brussels forecasts that Italy will travel in deflation of 0,3% this year and then recover to inflation of 0,7% in 2021.
At the same time, forecasts on the trend of unemployment rate are not particularly dramatic: 11,8% in 2020 (against 10,0% in 2019) and 10,7% in 2021.
“Italy has been hit particularly badly by the coronavirus pandemic – writes the Commission – Real output is expected to fall by around 18% in the first half of 2020. Assuming that economic activity starts to pick up in May and gradually normalizes, output growth is expected to rebound, aided by substantial support from policy measures.
I consumption they were abruptly interrupted during the months of complete closure of the country, but on this front the EU executive expects a strong rebound for the second half of 2020.
Businesses will cut back on spending investments, but the countermeasures taken by the government to support corporate liquidity should limit the number of bankruptcies.
The Commission defines the shock for the EU economy is "symmetrical"., “as the pandemic has affected all member states, but both the decline in production in 2020 and the boost to the rebound in 2021 are expected to occur with profound differences between countries. The economic recovery of each Member State will depend not only on the evolution of the pandemic, but also on the structure of the economy and the ability to respond with stabilization policies".
Secondo Paolo Gentiloni, Commissioner for Economic Affairs, “Europe is suffering the strongest economic shock since the Great Depression. Both the severity of the recession and the strength of the recovery will be uneven, affected by the speed at which business suspension measures can be lifted, the importance of services such as tourism in each economy, and each country's financial resources. These disparities pose a threat to the single market and the euro area, but they can be mitigated through strong and joint European action. We have to be up to this challenge”.
Finally, the Commission launches an indirect appeal to governments, emphasizing that “in the absence of a common strategy for recovery at EU level of a strong and timely nature, there is a risk that the crisis could lead to serious distortions in the single market and to profound economic, financial and social divergences between the member states of the euro area”.
