La European Commission drastically cuts Italy's growth forecasts. The new estimates will be officially published on Thursday morning, but some rumors (neither confirmed nor denied) give for certain that Brussels - with reference to the GDP 2019 of our country and taking into account the effects produced by the yellow-green maneuver – he will lower the bar 0,2%. How to say a third compared to Bank of Italy forecasts e International Monetary Fund (which estimate a growth of 0,6% for this year) and even a fifth compared to the estimates of government.
Only at the beginning of December, the executive saw the 2019 gross domestic product growing by1,5%. The data was considered unrealistic by study centers and institutions from all over the world, therefore - during the negotiations with Europe on the budget law - the government was forced to lower the forecast to a more probable 1%. However, this did not prevent the deputy prime minister last month Luigi Di Maio to talk about the possibility of a new XNUMXs-XNUMXs-style “economic boom”. And on several occasions the holder of the Treasury, Giovanni Tria, he said he was certain that growth in 2019 will exceed 1%.
All this clashes with the new calculations of Brussels, whose pessimism, however, is not isolated. The research center REF has already published calculations on the basis of which this year's Italian growth will be zero, while the study center of Confindustria he said he believed a figure slightly above zero to be probable.
The European Commission should also review negatively forecasts on the growth of the EU and the Eurozone. The slowdown in international trade due to the war on duties between the USA and China weighs heavily, but above all the slowdown in German industry, which has negative repercussions on all European countries, including Italy: “The Germany it is the first European market for our exports”, recalled the Prime Minister, Giuseppe Conte in recent days.
