Twelve hundred accredited journalists and TV from all over Europe, and beyond, are about to besiege the castle of Bratislava. The wait is there, but the substance seems to be yet to come. What do you want to discuss on the 16th in the first informal summit at 27 after the negative result of the English referendum?
All or almost all deny that there will be talk of Brexit. But the reality is that England's shadow will affect the European debate much more than it did before, since the breakup of London took place on an issue, immigration, on which everyone is currently discussing.
Already the move by His Majesty's government to erect a beautiful wall in Calais (with the obvious support and agreement of Paris) makes it clear how bad examples continue to influence European public opinion. And in fact everyone today is looking a little further with concern, to 2 October and 4 December, when the Hungarians and Austrians respectively will be called to the polls.
Austria and Hungary to vote
The referendum on the rejection of the refugee quota system proposed by the Commission will be held on 2 October in Budapest. A fact which in reality conceals a much greater pitfall: that of completely rejecting the Community method of majority voting in the Council of Ministers and the approval of the European Parliament, which with this democratic procedure had launched the initiative of the Commission, which today Budapest wants to push back. And it's a safe bet that the results will prove racist Viktor Orban right
In Austria, where the vote scheduled for October 2 has been postponed to December 4, the presidential match is being played again and the polls to date show another declared racist, Norbert Hofer, in the lead. Add to this atmosphere the defeat of Angela Merkel in Mecklenburg by the even more racist representatives of the Alliance for Germany and the resulting picture is the most worrying imaginable. The soul of Europe is being lost right in her heart and only a jolt of renewed commitment to the Union can stop the landslide.
No post-Brexit tightening proposal
But do you arrive in Bratislava in the right spirit? It is doubtful. No one, not even Germany, feels like putting forward grand plans. No institutional proposal to strengthen the Union in response to Brexit seems to make headway, even if several European study centres, including the IAI in cooperation with the CSF, have diligently produced ideas and concrete proposals on the political-institutional issues to be addressed.
Not even the Italian initiative to re-attribute primary responsibility to the six founders seems to have the strength to materialize. Nor have Renzi's symbols of reviving the Union with the launch of the Ventotene project for the time being able to go beyond good intentions.
If this is the real situation in the Europe of 27, in Bratislava we will move with enormous prudence and only on topics that can make everyone agree, at least verbally. Since the priority issues in citizens' concerns are immigration and terrorism, with some mention also of economic uncertainty, the question on the table is that of security. Or rather, to use the words of the President of the European Council Donald Tusk, the EU's responsibility is to "protect" its citizens. Speech that does not make sense, provided that then there are also concrete proposals on the table.
Security from immigration and fight against terrorism
So what security? These days there is talk of the Franco-German plan in the field of defence, aimed at initiating a kind of permanent structured cooperation, as envisaged by the Treaty of Lisbon (Articles 42 and 46). It is even proposing the creation of a common headquarters, a theme which until recently was absolutely to be avoided, for the coordination of EU missions and initiatives.
The idea therefore emerges of a sort of "Schengen of Defense" as also proposed by our Ministers of Foreign Affairs and Defence, Paolo Gentiloni and Roberta Pinotti, a few months ago. A group of "willing and able" countries, which would take on the task of acting as a vanguard, leaving time for those who are uncertain whether or not to join this first nucleus.
Apparently the proposal could also affect Eastern European countries which are on the defensive about everything else, immigration and Brussels' powers. However, their lack of confidence in the credibility of European defense projects remains in the background, at a time when they feel more exposed than ever before the awakening of the Russian Bear.
Their propensity still goes to NATO, better equipped and committed to creating anti-Russian structures. It will therefore be necessary to see what is the real will of France and Germany to carry forward this umpteenth European defense project with determination.
In fact, everyone seems to realize, even in the East, that the future of NATO is not at all secure, especially in the event of a victory for Donald Trump who has already declared that he is not interested in it and winks at Putin. Therefore, if the common defense will be on the table in any case, it will then be necessary to evaluate whether this plan too is not destined to be shelved soon as has happened too many times in the past.
Then there are other aspects on the subject of safety. Security from immigration, in the first place. The proposals already exist: to set up a common border force, but to be deployed where? On the borders of the EU they say. But how do you defend the borders of Greece and Italy?
Experience has made us understand that immigration is blocked by bringing the border to the countries of transit or origin. This was the case in 98 with Albania, when the EU under Italian leadership occupied the ports of that country. It is happening today with Turkey holding refugees within its territory.
But what about Libya? Operation Sophia, now in its second phase, has certainly not given satisfactory answers. Until the Libyan coasts from which the desperate depart, can be occupied, it looks more like a rescue mission than one to destroy trafficking networks.
The other concern concerns the fight against terrorism. For decades, there has been talk of European intelligence, of more effective Europol and of the coordinated use of tools, including IT tools, to fight terrorism. But even if this were to happen (and it is doubtful) it would also be necessary to create a single European prosecutor's office, common arrest warrants and immediate extraditions. From there to come.
Furthermore, terrorism, especially that of a territorial nature by the self-proclaimed "Islamic state", is also fought with instruments of military projection outside the borders of the EU. It is useless to delude ourselves that it is always and almost only the USA that operates in this direction. The EU must assume direct and common responsibilities and not through individual countries (always the usual ones).
It is said that Bratislava will be only the beginning of a road map which, via Malta in February, will take us to Rome in March next year for the celebrations for the 60th anniversary of the Treaties. Here, we would like to hope that it was not just about celebrations, but about concrete acts. Celebrations are too often dedicated to the dead!
