In recent weeks, Ukraine has been rocked by the tide of revolution that ended with the ousting of President Yanukovych, the release of former Prime Minister Tymosenko and the appointment of Oleksandr Turchynov as the new speaker of parliament and interim head of state . Given the deposition of a large part of Yanukovych's government (which in the meantime has disappeared from circulation), Ukraine will have to wait until the early elections on May 25 before regaining some internal political stability.
The revolution, which has found acceptance not only internally but also by a large part of the international community, has however brought with it a whole series of negative implications which are exacerbated by the need to find an immediate solution.
The economic situation of Ukraine it wasn't already the best even before the revolution broke out and the now former government put the agreements with the European Union in a corner. It was precisely because of internal economic weakness that the country had preferred to move towards a rapprochement with the Moscow government, accepting aid of around 15 billion dollars. Now, however, that the protesters in Maidan Square have sent the message loud and clear that a large part of the Ukrainian population does not want to lay down its economic and political leadership on the terms of the former USSR, it is Moscow that is reviewing its positions (as, however, was expected to happen). Russia has frozen the promised aid plan and other economic retaliations could also be on the way (gas price increase, reintroduction of duties, etc.).
The deterioration of the economic and political situation prompted the main rating agencies to express themselves in favor of a downgrade of the sovereign rating (S&P, Moody's and Fitch CCC with negative outlook). Ukraine's debt is now considered highly speculative and at an almost immediate risk of default. To better understand in which direction the Ukrainian situation will evolve, it will be necessary to wait for the next few weeks, the position of the European Union, the International Monetary Fund and a perhaps improbable rethinking by Russia.
For more in-depth reading, please refer to the SACE "Focus on Ukraine" file (attached).
Attachments: FocusOn_Ukraine_0214.pdf
