On New Year's Eve, Barack Obama removes the last pebbles from his shoe. After the UN's no to new Israeli settlements in the occupied territories, the expulsion provision has arrived for 35 Russian citizens guilty of having influenced the US elections thanks to hacking activities. The move does not impress Wall Street, which is busy winding down 2016 with profit-taking after the long rally. Moscow is silent. While awaiting the arrival of Donald Trump at the White House, Vladimir Putin reaps a new diplomatic success in Syria and celebrates the leap forward of the ruble, the record currency of the year (+15% also against the superdollar) on the wave of the recovery of crude oil .
Thus ended the year of electoral surprises, characterized in the second part by the charge of Wall Street (+14%) driving the rise in interest rates and the American currency which also favored the recovery of European stock markets. Only Piazza Affari, down 10% since the beginning of the year, did not participate in the party, weighed down as it is by the banking crisis. But, as Rossella O'Hara said in Gone with the Wind, "tomorrow is another day". Let's console ourselves with the Fiat Chrysler show, yesterday -1%, which on January 3 will debut at CES in Las Vegas with the hybrid Pacifica, the minivan chosen by Google to promote automatic driving in large US cities thanks to a car sharing service.
WEAK TOKYO, JUMP IN US OIL STOCKS
Weak Tokyo, which is starting to close with a modest drop of 0,4%, sufficient to wipe out the gains of 2016, the worst year for the Nikkei since 2010. The stock market was dominated by the performance of the yen: +22% until the election of Trump, -11,5% since November 8. Lists in the Asia Pacific area are about to close the year with a gain of 3,8%. The devaluation of the Yuan (-7% against the dollar) favored the stability of the Chinese Stock Exchanges.
The US markets did not move much: Dow Jones -0,07%, S&P 500 -0,02%, Nasdaq -0,12%. Sudden drop in the dollar, which fell to a low of 1,07 against the euro (later rebounded to 1,0570) and down against the yen, to a 15-day high. The phenomenon is linked to the year-end adjustments, which also caused a slight drop in the yields of the t-Bond to 2,48%.
Data on the US labor market confirmed the bright tone of the American economy: last week 265 new applications for unemployment benefits were filed, down from 275 the previous week. The data is in line with forecasts.
US crude inventories rose more than expected: +614.000 barrels against the forecast of a drop of 2,1 million. In particular, the deposits of Cushing, Oklahoma, one of the capitals of shale oil, are on the rise: +172 barrels. The prices of Brent (-0,1% to 56,14 dollars) and Wti (-0,5% to 53,77 dollars) fell, albeit slightly.
Oil-related stocks contrasted: ConocoPhillips -0,2%, Halliburton -0,3%, Exxon +0,1%. In Piazza Affari, the rise of Saipem continues +0,4% (yesterday +1%). Positive Eni (+0,8%), down Tenaris (-1,4%).
MILAN -0,2%. SOLD OUT FOR BTPs
Exchanges at a flicker also in the European stock exchanges, characterized by the decline in bank stocks. Piazza Affari closed the session with a drop of 0,2% to 19.203 points. The Paris and Frankfurt stock exchanges lost 0,2%.
Securing the Italian banking system will not be an easy job and will take time. This was stated by the Prime Minister, Paolo Gentiloni, during the end of year press conference. “We have secured savings with a decree whose implementation will be long and complicated. It's not that we hide it, but it's a strategic and fundamental decision,” said the premier.
Sold out and prices down yesterday in the medium-long term auction, accompanied by a good drop in yields. The Treasury has placed 6,75 billion euros on the four medium-long term securities. The 5-year BTP recorded a yield of 0,54 (lowest since September). The 1,77-year bond was assigned at a rate of 1,97% (lowest since October) down from XNUMX% at the end-November auction.
In the weekly report dedicated to the next investment ideas, the analysts of Jci Capital suggest reducing weight and duration on the Btp in favor of shorter maturities.
THE AUTHORITY RAISES THE RATES. TERNA SALE, ENEL AT THE HIGHEST IN 2016
The positive note came from the utilities, driven by the news that the Energy and Gas Authority has approved the adjustment of the electricity tariffs in force from next January 2,1st. The details of the Authority's resolution are being communicated. Terna +24% after the decision. Since the recent low of November 12,6, Terna has achieved four consecutive weeks of gains with an overall gain of 8%. Year-to-date performance is down 0,9%. Snam is also making progress (+XNUMX%).
Enel rose by 0,5%. at 4,16 euros, the highest since the end of November 2015, on a decidedly flat trading day. According to the American research firm Value Investment Principals, the objectives that the company has presented in the industrial plan are achievable. Value Investiment, in fact, is convinced that the Italian electricity company can achieve the goal of increasing Ebitda by 15% by 2019 and increasing net profit by 14% per year in the period 2016-19. According to Sandy Mehta, investment manager at Value Investment, the business plan is feasible and the stock is currently undervalued.
BANKS DOWN IN EUROPE. UBI ONE STEP FROM THE GOOD BANKS
On a day of modest changes, the declines in the banking sector across Europe stand out. The Stoxx index for the sector fell by 1,2%, Deutsche Bank lost 2,3%. Among the Italian banks, Unicredit falls (-1,8%). More marked decreases for Banco Popolare (-3,7%) on the eve of the wedding with Bpm (-3,5%). Intesa (-0,8%) contributed a 500 million euro real estate portfolio to the new Yielding Fund, managed by Idea Fimit and reserved for institutional investors.
UBI is also under pressure (-3,1%). Atlante presented an offer for two-thirds of the 3,7 billion euro gross problem loans of Nuova Banca Etruria, Nuova Banca Marche and Nuova CariChieti, a move which facilitates the acquisition of the three banks.
PARMALAT STILL UP. DEFLATES TELECOM
Speculation on Telecom Italia deflates (-0,1%). The Minister of Economy, Pier Carlo Padoan, has denied an intervention by the CDP in the capital of the telecommunications company. Mediaset – 0,5%. The prime minister, Paolo Gentiloni said he was "not indifferent to the takeover by the French group Vivendi" but added that "it is not the government's job to intervene, if anything, the authorities to protect the market, if they deem it appropriate".
Parmalat closed up 1,24%, at 2,9320 euros, above the price of the tender offer announced by Lactalis. Amber, a shareholder with about 3%, has announced that it will not accept the offer. Kepler Cheuvreux raised the target price on the stock from 2,35 euros to 2,8 euros in the bid (hold recommendation).
Roaring end of the year for the patrol of technological stocks: Tas +11,35%, Acotel +13,02%, Dada +8,63% and Banzai +9%.
