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Turkey in the ballot with Erdogan overwhelmed by the forecasts: the authoritarian Sultan in the saddle for another 5 years

On Sunday 28 the Turks are called to the polls again. Erdogan is the big favorite in the ballot, also thanks to the support of Ogan's nationalists. For the ISPI analyst, the games are made. Unless….

Turkey in the ballot with Erdogan overwhelmed by the forecasts: the authoritarian Sultan in the saddle for another 5 years


Turkeysecond round. Tomorrow the polls will be open again in Turkey after last May 14, in the first round, for the renewal of the Presidency of the Republic and of the Turkish Grand National Assembly, the country's parliament, none of the candidates achieved an absolute majority of votes. Tomorrow is the turn of the ballot. But second Valeria Talbot, analyst of ISPI, in Türkiye the game is over. “Barring unlikely electoral surprises, Recep Tayyip Erdogan will continue to lead Turkey over the next five years as well”.

Will “continuity” win? It's better that way?

“If this reassures those who saw in the change an element of uncertainty – explains Talbot – it must be remembered that continuity does not always rhyme with stability. THE poll results they showed the face of a paese that remains divided and strongly polarized between those who support "Baba Recep" and those who are deeply disappointed and disillusioned. In short, according to the analyst, "what will Erdogan's Turkey be like and where will it go" is a question that we will hear echoing for a long time to come, despite the fact that the path seems to have already been traced for some time".

Sinan Ogan's endorsement

But what would have produced this scenario that seems so obvious? Meanwhile a political data important: after days of reflection and silence, the third place, the candidate Sinan Ogan, with 5,2% of the preferences, defining Kilicdaroglu, the opposition candidate, an "unconvincing" alternative to the outgoing president, has guest its constituents to vote for Erdogan.
If the vote were only a matter of arithmetic, since the outgoing leader took 49,45% of the votes in the first round, while the challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu stopped at 45,95%, he would have already won at this point.
But we know that politics and arithmetic don't always coincide, votes still have to be counted.

But one thing is true: Turkey has never appeared so divided

Erdogan's supporters were above all the inhabitants of the innermost areas. Those who voted for Kilicdaroglu live in the cities and strongholds of the west, as well as in the Kurdish-majority regions of eastern Anatolia. That said, it is equally true that the outgoing president seems to have done better than his opponent since the first round.

What convinced voters the most?

It would be more correct to say that what should have punished him has not been taken into any consideration.
The economy for example. The message of the "onion" of the adversary did not help, that is the finger pointed at the increase in inflation which was not even allowing the Turks to buy onions. Erdogan it was not even punished in the regions hit by the devastating earthquake in February, as many expected, given that, in the weeks leading up to the vote, those areas had been the scene of violent protests. But most of all it must have convinced those voters that the president has increased the Salaries to civil servants and provided gas free for families. Appeals to national pride and videos showcasing Turkey's burgeoning defense industry must have done the rest.

The cards played by Kilicdaroglu's opposition

E Kilicdaroglu? What has he done in these two weeks to convince those who didn't vote for him in the first round?
After the shock caused by the surprise not only of not having won the elections right away - as some polls had predicted - but not even of having come head to head with the Sultan, the candidate of the "Table of Six" tried to ensure the sympathies (and votes) of nationalists in freedom, veering all to the right. Kilicdaroglu thus accused Erdogan of not having "protected the borders and the honour" of the country, accentuating the anti-migrant arguments already present in his programme.
“Those who love this country go and vote – he said – We cannot abandon our homeland to this mentality which has brought 10 million illegal immigrants among us. The time has come to send them out of the country, now”. By greatly exaggerating the number of Syrian immigrants, around 4 million in Turkey, as the nationalists always do.
Sinan ogan but that was not what he wanted from Kilicdaroglu. To get his votes he had asked for an explicit break by the opposition leader with the Kurdish electorate; and this seriously Kilicdaroglu could not have done since they are his main supporters.

No one is under any illusions: Erdogan will confirm his authoritarian style

Ogan or no Ogan, however no analyst gives the winning opposition in the last race. So much so that the reflections revolve more around what will be Erdogan's third Turkey than the news of a new leader. And hardly anyone does illusions: in case of victory it is expected that Erdogan consolidate yours authoritarian style of government inside and outside the country.
In internal politics it would continue with the gags on the press, on the judges, depriving more and more civil rights, and keeping politics and the economy well in harness.
In foreign policy Turkey will continue to be a swing state, one time for democracy, another time for dictatorships, depending on the convenience of the moment.

Tomorrow will also be 10 years since the popular uprising against Erdogan. Will this affect the vote?

Everything seems to be heading towards this result. But the match, as we know, ends only with the referee's whistle. Someone, for example, remembers that on the day of the second round of voting they will be ten years from the events of Gezi Park, the largest popular uprising against Erdogan ended after 3 months of protests, 11 dead, over 8 thousand injured and 900 arrests. Every year the Turks mark the date with demonstrations in all cities. Who knows that on the day of the vote the protest will turn into choices in the polls.
It would be the miracle that no one believes in today.

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