Erdogan was "forced" to ballot? Or instead, not even this time the united opposition managed to beat the "Sultan", despite appearing to be the strongest ever? It's a matter of points of view, but what is certain is that in Turkey, the shoulder, which the whole world expected (and in part hoped for) against the incumbent president, did not take place: it ended with 49% of the votes for Erdogan and 45% for Kilicdaroglu.
Now we will have to wait another 15 days, until May 28, before understanding whether Turkey will still be governed by Erdogan, because "continuity" will have won; or it will be led by Kiliçdaroglu, the last heir of Ataturk's party, founder of the Republic, which turns one hundred this year.
We talk about it with Valeria Giannotta, an analyst of great poise and competence, scientific director of the Turkey Observatory for Cespi, an important center for foreign policy studies, author of books and publications on one of the main countries of the Middle East.
Valeria Giannotta, you are in Ankara, where you followed the progress of the vote: did you expect this result?
“In reality it was very likely that we would have gone to the ballot, but, frankly, many expected a closer head-to-head. At one point it seemed that Erdogan had the majority, then gradually his vote decreased. The president's followers trusted the Turkish diaspora abroad which, despite having rewarded Erdogan with 50% of the votes, was not sufficient to fill the gap, even if it exceeded the expectations of the "Erdoganists", especially given the climate breathed in Turkey in recent days. A festive atmosphere on the part of the opposition that on Saturday evening was almost sure of making it in the first round. On their part, therefore, there is certainly a sort of disappointment, while on the part of Erdogan's coalition there is a sigh of relief”.
Were you impressed by the turnout in the vote?
“Yes, 89% is impressive even by the standard of Turkey which, by the way, has always had a high voter turnout. In reality, these elections were deeply felt because they were experienced as a referendum: for or against Erdogan; but, above all, for or against continuity, for or against a regime change. The challenge was very tough and painful for the president in office. His popularity was in free fall after the February 7 earthquake, with many criticizing him for not moving properly after the first few days. In the end, however, it was precisely the areas hit by the earthquake that chose to vote for him, not only because they are traditionally conservative regions, but probably also because they wanted to reward the president for the next step and the speed in delivering the first housing to the populations affected".
How did the elections take place?
“In an orderly and problem-free manner. Despite the fears of the eve. I left the TV studios at 5 in the morning and Ankara was perfectly quiet. It counted a lot that both leaders invited their supporters not to demonstrate in the square".
What will happen now?
“Obviously the game is still open, but if the picture remains this, there are very wide margins for believing that Erdogan will make it, because the first obstacle was to beat the alliance of the Six, and he succeeded. Now he is waiting to understand what the leaders who have left the scene will do. An important role will be played by the fourth candidate, the one who withdrew three days before the vote. I speak of the head of the Motherland Party, Muharrem Ince, a controversial politician. Coming from the ranks of the CHP (Kiliçdaroglu's party), he was the main opposition candidate in 2018, beaten in the polls by Erdogan. Then he tried to unseat Kiliçdaroglu at the top of the party, and having failed, he left in protest and set up another one, his own. Today this party is quoted around 3%, a percentage which, after his withdrawal from the presidential elections, is thought to have merged with Erdogan's party. It is likely that it will continue on this path”.
And then there's the odd man out, Sinag Ogan…
“He is the big winner of this first round, the fourth candidate, who finished third, with 5% of the vote. Ogan is at the top of an alliance, known as the Ancestral Alliance, with profoundly nationalist expectations, born from the NHP, a nationalist party, now an ally of Erdogan. From the beginning of the count to the end, he remained stable at 5 / 5,2%. The big question today, if we look to the future, in the ballot is: who will these votes go to? To Erdogan or to Kiliçdaroglu? Even if what Ogan said after the vote deprives Kiliçdaroglu of all hope, because he declared that he could only support him on condition that he implements a political closure towards the Kurds. Something impossible for the opposition leader to do because, for the first time in the history of Turkey, the Kurds have chosen to vote for a candidate, Kiliçdaroglu, who is not an expression of their parties, and even represents that Kemalism which has always been an enemy of the Kurds. Just to give an example, in the area of Diyarbakir, the main Kurdish city of Anatolia, Kiliçdaroglu took 70% of the votes. From this we understand that the Sinag Ogan option is impracticable for the leader of the opposition. And that therefore 5% of him could be added to the votes already won by Erdogan ”.
What penalized the opposition in the first electoral round?
“In my opinion, first of all, the uncertainty of the future of the coalition. The "Six" set themselves up as the "renewal" and could only make promises, whereas Erdogan brought substantial issues to the table, results already achieved. I believe, however, that everywhere, and therefore also in Turkey, there is a distinction between voting 'for whom' and voting 'for what'. In Turkey the "for whom" is easy, you vote for the strong leader. And Kiliçdaroglu is not a strong leader seen from Ankara. The "Turkish Gandhi" is Western stuff. He certainly presents himself as a more moderate leader in tone than Erdogan, but he campaigned by being filmed in the kitchen, while he cooked or prepared tea, intending to get the message across: "I'm one of you". But for a good 50% of Turkish men and Turkish women, this is not recognized as an important value, they prefer someone "different and more powerful" than themselves. Kiliçdaroglu also cleared the identity issue, underlining the fact that he is an Alevi of Kurdish origin. He has unhinged a taboo, that's for sure, because up until now the element of belonging to a part of Islam had never been used in an electoral campaign; however this offered Erdogan the possibility of riding the same theme of identities, having easy game in sounding the alarm of the breakup of the Islamic community. And then the fact that he was at the head of a very fragmented coalition also played against Kiliçdaroglu. The doubt was: if he will be the president, with such a government, how much stability, how much power struggle will be created?”
And there are those who also add the issue of Syrian refugees, do you think it weighed?
"I think yes. Kiliçdaroglu said he would repatriate Syrian refugees. There are 4 million in Turkey, of which about 200 have obtained the right to vote. It is not difficult to imagine that, as a sign of recognition, the majority of them voted for Erdogan, who has welcomed them since 2011".
What should we finally expect?
“We are in a stalemate in which the main issues remain on the table: the economy above all, with skyrocketing inflation and the fall of the currency; identity issues, religious issues, the nationalist interpretation of politics, given the success of one of Erdogan's main allies. I would say that yesterday was a challenge that even Erdogan's supporters weren't so sure they could win. Now the electoral campaign will become even tighter and could reserve surprises. But if things remain as we have described them, I repeat, it is very likely that Erdogan will win, and also quite easily ”.