Deconfinement and connections: two terms that have not yet met in the reopening of Europe. Yet together they can be the solution to breathe new life into the world tourism, the most illustrious industrial victim of Covid 19. Deconfinement puts an end to the prohibition of being closed in a certain territory. So to be able to start moving again, to travel. Connections is, on the other hand, the term used by Miquel Oliu-Barton, Professor of Mathematics at the Paris-Dauphine University and Bary Pradelski, Professor of Economics at the Oxford-Man Institute. A few days ago they published the study "Connecting European green areas: a proposal to save tourism" with the think tank EsadeEcPol.
The sector it accounts for 13% of employment and 12% of annual GDP in Italy, 11% and 14% in Spain, 26% and 30% in Greece, to name the most representative countries of the study. To overcome the pandemic blow and start traveling in eco-sustainable areas again, the two researchers indicate a strategy to get out of self-confinement and direct people towards unprecedented green areas. Through a mathematical model they propose the creation of areas with 10.000 inhabitants in which to gradually de-confine them. Areas to delimit – distinct from the reds – declared healthy and above all safe.
Colors are everything: red, if the virus is not under control; green if it is and if there have been no infections within a set week. Optimistic about the feasibility of this "green" solution, Barton and Pradelski predict that within 4 months the non-contagious zones would merge between them generating a web of hospitality on a European scale. An absolute novelty to relaunch a decisive sector. Many states of the European Union, write the two professors, have launched their deconfinement plans by region. As the incidence of the virus decreases, mobility between these Regions will normalize following an optimal strategy.
The novelty is that the model can work at a European level, rather than in each individual country. Of course, the attractive areas will have to be certified by the Community institutions e we need to study how. After all, it is a question of getting 23 million workers across Europe back to work as soon as possible. People to be safeguarded also in terms of health, of course. At the meeting of tourism ministers last week, the Commissioner for the Internal Market, Thierry Breton said that the Union is thinking of solutions in the context of the European budget which – we add – does not have fast times.
Green and sustainable mapping should, therefore, examine the policy, and quickly to coordinate it horizontally. The solution would make it possible to compensate for the economic losses due to the closure to international tourism. For this year, at least, then we'll see. Among other things, the zoning would mark a gradual transition towards that sustainable economy that is the subject of Ursula von der Leyen's new deal. The central point on the implementation of the EsadeEcPol think tank model, in our opinion, remains the checks on people.
Approaching specific areas does not eliminate them. The researchers pose the theme of apps on traceability and solve it with random temperature tests and checks. They consider the contagion monitoring with phones mobile phones too invasive, better direct investigations. The groundbreaking and very inspiring study was taken over by Le Monde and other international journals. There are no in-depth assessments by policy makers. Let's wait.
