Once upon a time there was the Jasmine Revolution and the most esteemed and pampered African country in Europe, the only one who had walked down the path of democracy after the devastation and civil wars caused by the Arab Spring. He was called (and is still called) tunisia, but of that country that wanted to challenge the West on its political, social and economic terrain, only the shadow remained.
Today Tunisia is only trying to stay afloat, after having plunged into an economic crisis that shows no signs of abating.
Gendarme of Europe
And that's why it has accepted the role of gendarme that Italy and the EU have designed for her. In exchange of course for cash. A much closer Türkiye.
For now, it has received one hundred and fifty million unconditionally, allocated by the European Union, with the promise of adding another 900, linked however to the implementation of the reforms requested by the International Monetary Fund.
They will have to serve for strengthen maritime borders of the country to be blocked the flow of migrants towards Europe and, above all, towards Italy. Because of the 53 migrants who have landed on our shores since the beginning of the year, more than half have left from Tunisia. In May this flow decreased, perhaps due to bad weather, but it is certain that, now that summer has broken out, it will resume rapidly.
It is almost certain, however, that these funds will not be enough.
The most experienced analysts fear that the desired effect will not be achieved and to prove it they refer to theexperience of Libya, which, in 2017, received funding for the same purpose. The Libyan militias, in fact, managed to reduce the landings, even using, more often than not, ferocious means: prison, violence, robberies, rapes. But net of moral (and political) judgement, that management was possible because it was practiced precisely by the militias.
In Tunisia militias do not exist, migration management is much more fragmented. The flows are managed by many "suppliers" so surveillance is much more difficult. It is therefore probable that aid from Europe, equivalent according to experts to 6% of the country's GDP, will serve Tunisia more to stay on its feet, avoiding economic collapse, than to curb the departures of the desperate. Although, in reality, the two problems are connected, because the more Tunisia is saved, the less there will be the drive to flee the country.
The economic data, in fact, do not make discounts: inflation is two figures, unemployment is close to 20% with peaks of 40% in the youth brackets, the value of real wages is plummeting.
Isis has brought the country to its knees
But what happened to get to this situation? Why has Tunisia consumed (almost) all its democratic treasure in twelve years?
It happened that the small country, 12 million inhabitants, so deserted, was targeted by Islamic terrorists who had lost the war in Iraq and Syria. Tunisia was a good challenge for those who wanted to subvert the rules of the "infidels" and precisely in the country they adored.
Thus the attacks against tourists have followed one another since 2015 at a rapid pace and have produced enormous damage to the economy, doing reduce the number of tourists by 30%. overall, of 50% of those coming from Europe. That is to say, Isis has brought the country to its knees.
Why so much terrorism against Tunisia?
Obviously due to the fragility of the young democracy, but above all because it is there home to many “foreign fighters” went to fight in Iraq, Syria and Libya. The Tunisian militiamen numbered between 5 and 8, and have come to cover important roles within the political-military hierarchy of ISIS. Once defeated, the organization let these fighters go home, indicating that they were putting their experience in the field and the authority they acquired to good use in the local radical circuit.
The death of the elderly president Essebsi, who died in 2019, the first to be democratically elected, seemed to be the temporal beginning of the new course of Tunisia.
The rise to power of Kais Saied
He was replaced by the current president, Kais Saied, 65 years old, university professor, whom everyone in Europe distrusts, but whom nobody wants to do without.
He won the election beating a wealthy and well-known entrepreneur, Nabil Karoui, owner of the main Tunisian television chain, Nessma TV, one of whose shareholders is said to be the Berlusconi family, and who at the time of the vote was in prison for money laundering . With no political background, Kais Saied is nicknamed "Robocop" for his physical characteristics and his monotonous speech. He speaks with a stamped voice, an ascetic rhythm and expresses himself in literary Arabic. Of course, he also speaks French, the language of the old settlers. It was mainly young graduates who voted for him.
Also taking advantage of the Covid pandemic, in 2021 he attributed himself full constitutional powers, dismissed cabinet members and froze the activities of parliament, then dissolved it. Last year, finally, he had a referendum adopted new constitution characterized by a strong executive power, his obviously. And in order not to miss anything, you have brought Islam back to the source of law. For their part, the Tunisians have reacted, as voters often do in the West in the face of unshared scenarios, by deserting the polls. Only 3 out of 10 voted in the referendum, according to the government's own sources; while in the last elections, the parliamentary ones of 19 December 2022, only 8,8% of those entitled voted. Goodbye representative democracy.
One followed period of "turbidity", which began last January, in which street protests resumed, led by the Ugtt union which also had contributed to getting Kais Saied elected. And the repressive measures have also followed, of which the general secretary of the European Trade Union Confederation has also paid the price, Esther Lynch, expelled from Tunisia after participating in a protest against repression and for workers' rights. Journalists who criticized the government were arrested, television networks were gagged.
For all these reasons today the Tunisia downgraded from 'free' to 'partially free' country, according to the ranking of the NGO "Freedom House". While the African Court for Human Rights, ie the court of the African Union, has invited the president to "repeal the presidential decrees in force", considering his actions unconstitutional.
European Union in silence
The EU, on the other hand, is silent: being Tunisia “a privileged partner”, prize for having converted the "spring" into democracy, it is unlikely that anything will change in the short term. And therefore, despite the erosion of rights, Tunisia has continued to have financial support, while the economic relationship with Italy has not been affected at all. For example, the electricity interconnection project between the two countries continues, theElmed, which involves the construction of a 200 km long submarine cable from the Tunisian coast to Partanna, in Sicily. Elmed obtained 307,6 million euros from the EU, to which another 300 million euros must be added from the Italian Terna and its Tunisian partner.
Harder instead for Tunisia get the IMF loan, because to get it, it will have to follow the rules established by the well-known "tears & blood" binomial: complete elimination of subsidies for food and fuel, cuts in public health, education and social protection, privatization of the main public companies and, of course, no wage increases.
I am against all this the Tunisians took to the streets. But President Saied also replied that he won't do anything about it, otherwise the country will explode. And it is at this point that he threatened to switch to other lenders, more generous even if less reliable from a democratic point of view. First on the list the China. But also all the other countries of the Brics, Brazil, Russia, India, South Africa.
A bluff? Possible. But no one, in Europe and in Italy, wants to go and find out.
