The world has really changed. At 7.40 the official confirmation arrived: the Americans decided with a robust majority that Donald Trump will be the new president of the United States, blatantly denying the polls, just as happened with Brexit. Among the great losers is the traditional establishment: the major newspapers, CNN, the vast majority of experts, who have revealed themselves to be the expression of the elites and not of the electorate's belly.
The reaction of the markets at all latitudes was immediate.
- Asian stock markets collapse. Tokyo has slipped, hour after hour, lower and lower, going from the initial rise (motivated by the first results favorable to Hillary Clinton) to the final abyss. The Nikkei index closed with a drop of more than 6%, dragged down by companies that have invested heavily in Mexico in recent years, such as Nissan, Mazda and Honda.
- Futures on European markets and on Wall Street signal storm. The discounts hover anywhere around 5%. An initial drop of 5,50% is looming in Piazza Affari, ahead of Frankfurt (-4,7%) and Paris (-4,60%).
- what BTP-Bund spread jumps at the opening to 167 basis points.
– Immediate landslide of dollar: the euro shot up around 1,13 (from 1,10), the yen is approaching 101.
– Even more violent is the reaction on US Treasury bills, a traditional safe haven in times of turbulence: prices fell by 14 points (-5,95%), causing strong growth in yields around 1,71%.
– Salt thegold, up 4,6% to $1334.
– Instead the mexican peso, which leaves about 13% on the ground. The government has called an emergency meeting with central bank governor Agustìn Carstens.
– In sharp decline also the Petroleum: Brent trades at 44,40 dollars, Wti just above 43 dollars.
Beyond the immediate reactions, which follow the script that had been foreseen in the event of Trump's unexpected success, the attention of operators is already directed to the reactions of the central banks, certainly among the big losers of the electoral season.
The electoral upheaval will certainly invest the Federal Reserve. Trump has made no secret of wanting to replace Janet Yellen at the helm of the Bank. Yellen herself, according to rumors, has already said she is inclined to leave the top position in favor of Stanley Fischer, the institute's number two.
At this point, it is very unlikely that the Federal Reserve will be able to proceed with a quarter point rate hike in December, as already expected. Forecasts for a hike have fallen below 50%. The novelty also changes the prospects for the ECB, which is grappling with a sudden and unwelcome rise in the euro, which threatens the fragile recovery of the Old Continent.
The most important political fact cannot fail to be reflected in the behavior of US business. The former middle class won, impoverished by globalization and displaced by the irruption of the digital economy, which has cut jobs and widened the gap between more specialized workers and "blue collars". Among the more negative signs, the thrust towards protectionism of which Mexico will be the first but not the only victim is gaining strength.
After the voting revolution, yesterday's financial data has the flavor of prehistory. Wall Street had closed its doors yesterday with a moderate rise: Dow Jones +0,4%, Nasdaq +0,53%.
No less surprised were the European stock exchanges. Yesterday, after an uncertain start, the lists had taken the upward path, when in the late afternoon the projections on the most uncertain states based on the "early voters" (in the US you can vote in advance) had begun to come out, confirming the advantage of the Clinton: a sensational error of judgment that will be corrected downwards today.
Milan closed at 16.817 points, up 0,48%. Plus signs also for Paris (+0,31%), Frankfurt (+0,16%), London (+0,54%) and Madrid (+0,18%).
Meanwhile, the British Supreme Court has announced that it will hear the government's appeal against last week's decision by the High Court in London to request a vote in Parliament before leaving the UK between 5 and 8 December. European Union. Scotland will intervene in the legal appeal presented by the British government.
He's still up half a point Italy's Target 2 debt from 353,940 billion in September to 355,459 in October. An increase of just one and a half billion, however enough to record a new all-time high in the country's liabilities on the Eurosystem payment system. At the basis of the trend are both systemic factors – such as the advancement of Qe or the fall in yields which pushes investors out of Italian assets – and specific factors, linked to the difficulties of the banking sector and the increase in political uncertainty for the constitutional referendum.
The new estimates of the European Commission on Italy, which will be published this morning, will not show "significant deviations" from the Italian government's forecasts. Economy Minister Pier Carlo Padoan said this when he met reporters at the end of Ecofin in Brussels.
He has weakened the debt market at the end of the session: the Btp 10 was traded at 1,647%, spread at 150 basis points.
At the auction on Friday 11 November, the Ministry of the Economy will make available to investors a total of between 5,25 and 7,25 billion in medium-long term securities. Between 2,25 and 2,75 billion of the three-year BTP will be offered, between 1,75 and 2,25 billion of the seven-year BTP and between 750 million and 1,5 billion of the BTP 1 March 2047. The twentieth tranche is also on offer of the bond dated 1 September 2040, with a residual term of 24 years, for €500/750 million.
Yesterday she stood out again among the titles of Piazza Affari Mount Paschi (+3,8%): the news that the Qatar Investment Authority is willing to invest between 1 and 1,5 billion euros in the Sienese bank, becoming the anchor investor, takes shape. QIA could enter the shareholders' register with a reserved capital increase of at least one billion euros, but could reach up to 1,5 billion. The arrival of a new important investor could pave the way for the five billion euro capital increase that will see the bank busy around the end of the year.
Among the banks, Unicredit fell by 0,6%, Understanding +0,7%. Sharp reduction of Popular Bank (-2,6%), which closed the first nine months of the year with a net loss of 712 million euros compared to a profit of 349,8 million last year. The result was affected by net value adjustments on loans of 1,7 billion (there were 575 million last year). This is a decision consistent with the policy of increasing the average level of coverage of non-performing loans and which led to the 1 billion capital increase that the ECB had requested to give the green light to the merger with Bpm.
Positive insurance and in particular Generali (+ 1,5%). General Bank +3,5%. In asset management it was the day of Azimuth (+7,3%): the company has received cancellation from the SIM register from the Bank of Italy and will consequently distribute 1 euro per share of residual dividend with coupon detachment on 21 November and payment on 23.
Among the Milanese blue chips, the rise of Brembo (+2,8%), after the data of strong growth in profitability announced on Monday.
Ferrari jumped forward by about one point, setting a new historical record at 49,99 euros. Banca Akros and Banca IMI have rewarded the results by raising the recommendation to Buy, the target price for both is 60 euro. Fiat Chrysler closes down 0,6%, Cnh Industrial + 0,3%.
Closure unchanged for StM, Leonardo gained 1,2%. Positive Telecom Italia (+1,2%). Bofa-Merrill Lynch has added the stock to their European favorites list alongside Galp (energy). The target is confirmed at 1,60 euros. Among the reasons: recovery of profitability, undervaluation of about 20% compared to competitors. Goldman Sachs instead reiterated the Buy, adjusting the target to 0,99 euros from 0,95 euros. The company will present the new industrial plan for the period 2017-2019 next February.
Mondadori +5,9% after the good results. Net revenues grew by 14,3% to 935,3 million. Excluding the newly acquired Rizzoli Libri and Banzai Media, they recorded substantial stability compared to 818,3 million in 9 months of 2015 "after almost four years" of contraction, underlines a note. After net investments for acquisitions of 135,7 million, net financial debt at 30 September stood at 329 million from -243,6 million in September 2015.
Italgas it lost 3,4%. On Monday, at its debut in Piazza Affari, the share of the company born from the Snam spin-off closed at 3,97 euros, down 0,70% compared to the reference of 3,998 set by Borsa Italiana. Snam retraces 0,4% after +4,2% the day before.
Technogym, which released its nine-month revenue yesterday after the stock market close, fell 3,2%.
