“We can no longer think of living in the world we had twenty or thirty years ago, we must learn to live with a new reality that the new American administration is now forcing us to face, an administration that seems to want to overcome multilateralism and considers Europe an increasingly less relevant subject”. He speaks Michele Valensise, ambassador, former secretary general of the Farnesina after having led the embassies of Sarajevo, Brasilia and Berlin and, since yesterday, new President of the Institute of International Affairs (IAI) directed in recent years by Ambassador Ferdinando Nelli Feroci.
The Trump we saw take the US out of the WHO (and perhaps in the future also from the WTO) inaugurates a new world and risks putting a tombstone on the multilateral system created with the Bretton Woods agreements and the San Francisco Charter?
"We really hope that this is not a tombstone. Of course, we all know - and not just today - the lack of trust that Trump has always placed in multilateral mechanisms, favoring a bilateral approach. Whether this will mean in the medium to long term the end of the multilateral system that has governed the world until now is to be verified step by step".
The focus especially in Europe is on the measures announced on duties. What should we expect?
“Here too we are on new ground but Trump's insistence on highlighting the disadvantages of the United States on the trade front, especially in relations with Europe, does not take into account the fact that, for example, in financial services, relations between the two sides of the Atlantic are in favour of the United States”.
An even more challenging game is the one regarding the new European regulation on web giants. Can we imagine a negotiation that sees duties and Big Tech together?
“It is true that in the front row at Inauguration Day we saw all the leaders of Big Tech lined up to pay homage to Trump. But beyond the photo, it will be necessary to verify in concrete terms within the US administration what the actual relationships with the big groups will be, not just the relationship between Trump and Musk. Then the relationship with the European Union will have to be regulated. Here too, it will be important to have a cohesive position from all of Europe that overcomes the different sensitivities and concerns between the member states. The problem is that the new administration considers Europe a non-relevant political entity. Trump does not recognize Europe as such, at the time he applauded the United Kingdom's exit from the EU. But Europe certainly cannot give up 70 years of history and cohesion that have produced peace and prosperity even outside the continent”.
Is Trump's direct and privileged relationship with Italian Prime Minister Meloni an element that strengthens or weakens Europe and transatlantic relations?
"That there is a close relationship of dialogue with the United States is a positive fact. Now the challenge is to succeed in asserting this relationship of the United States with Italy and with some other European countries on behalf of the European Union."
The probable new German Chancellor Friedrich Merz seems to exclude Italy from the leading group of the EU that would see, in addition to France and Germany, Poland and not Italy. Is this a possible scenario?
“The probable future German Chancellor Merz has always had a very Atlanticist position and will work for a close relationship with the United States. I do not see any preclusive attitudes towards our country. The relationship between Italy and Germany is one of great integration and interdependence, which can only exist between countries with the two main European manufacturing industries. With Poland, Germany has a relationship imposed by geography and history, which however does not mean a necessary marginalization of Italy”.
Another chapter is that of spending on security within the Atlantic Alliance. Italy is still far from the 2% target. How can we fill this gap?
"The increase in military spending is certainly not an invention of Trump, dating back at least to the NATO summit 11 years ago in Wales. We must be ready to respond to this request, certainly not by bringing it to 5% in the short term, an unachievable goal for us, but by promoting a trend towards progressive increase, not only in terms of quantity but also in terms of quality of spending. A profound process is underway: also in light of the Russian aggression against Ukraine, we must be aware that the relationship between those who produce security and those who consume it has changed".
