Il Made in Italy risks paying a high price due to that electoral promise of new US president Donald Trump indicating 10% import duties Usa. The additional costs due to the protectionism of the tycoon for Italy could amount to between 4 and 7 billion dollars more per yearThe figure was calculated in the analysis of Promethea entitled “The impact on Italy of Trump’s proposal on US tariffs”.
The new restrictions must be added to the almost 2 billion in duties faced in 2023 and would weigh on key sectors of Italian exports starting from mechanics, from fashion system e from agri-food. THE companies would be forced to choose whether to take charge of thetariff increase to maintain their competitive positioning or let it worsen due to higher final prices resulting from tariffs.
Trump's Pre-Election Promises
The tycoon has promised that he will apply a 10% tariff on all American imports and in particular 60% tariffs for goods from China. In this way, it wants to protect national industries and reduce taxes on labor income, replacing these revenues with those related to duties. This move is defined by Prometeia as "difficult, counterproductive, anomalous and questionable".
Two possible scenarios
The analysis, edited by Claudio Colacurcio and Carmela from Terlizzi, remember that the United States they are the second largest outlet market for Italy, after Germany and takes into consideration two possible scenarios.
La first hypothesis imagine a 10 point increase just on products already submitted to duties (about 3.000 product codes) and estimates an additional cost of over 4 billion. In this scenario the sectors affected are above all fashion and food. The second hypothesis simulates a tariff increase instead generalized of 10 points, whose additional cost would exceed 7 billion. In this second scenario, the new protectionism would hit even medium and high intensity goods technological, for example in mechanics and in pharmaceutica, which are today less exposed to tariffs because they are functional to American domestic production.
Trump's axe even heavier on Germany, less on France and Spain
Trump's tariff crackdown would force the Germany a cost even greater compared to Italy, duties would go from 2,4 to 10 billion in the first scenario and almost to 18 billion in the second., while France and Spain would be less penalized. Germany would fare worse: While France and Spain, which export less to the US, would pay 3-6 and 1,8-2,9 billion respectively. These estimates are only indicative, pending the choices of the new presidency, warns the research institute.
Colacurcio and Di Terlizzi they observe that it is “a impassable road for several reasons” the promise of a 10% tariff on all imports and 60% for goods from China in order to protect domestic industries and reduce taxes on labor, replacing these revenues with those related to duties. It would be likely, in fact, retaliation from other countries, there would be a risk of counterproductive effects on the competitiveness of American importing companies and the less well-off classes, who would be the most affected, would be penalised.
