“Just a few more weeks and you will know”. Donald Trump sent this signal to Wall Street, which is increasingly impatient with the president's promises: tax reform, an infrastructure investment plan and softer financial rules. And the market's response was a shower of new records, confirming that trust in the President is truly solid. A lot of optimism has also infected the European markets: suddenly, who knows why, the fear of a downgrading of the ratings of Italy and France has given way to moderate optimism.
Also thanks to the summit between Angela Merkel and Mario Draghi. “It is always interesting to talk to President Draghi,” commented the German chancellor. “However – she added – I would like to clear the field of a misunderstanding that has arisen about Europe at different speeds. It is not true that I spoke of different speeds with regard to the Eurozone”. In short, the euro area remains united. At least for now, Trump's pressure has not produced rifts in the Union. But the increase to historic highs in the German surplus (over 230 billion in 2016) signals an imbalance that needs to be corrected.
FLY TOKYO (+2,3%), CHINA RUNS AGAIN
The exceptional snowfall in New York offers a suitable frame for an equally exceptional atmosphere on the price lists. Meteo Borsa signals that the bear's hibernation is destined to continue.
The end of the week marked by increases for the Asian stock markets, which have risen to their highest levels in 18 months. Tokyo shines (+2,3%), favored by the decline in the yen, on the eve of Shinzo Abe's visit to Washington. Sidney and Hong Kong also rose.
There is good news from China. Strong growth was recorded in January both in terms of exports (+7,9%) and imports (+16,7%). On the political front, tensions with the US are easing: Donald Trump made the first phone call to Xi Jingping, assuring Beijing that the administration does not intend to change its attitude towards Taiwan.
TRIPLETE IN WALL STREET, THE FINANCIAL CELEBRATIONS
Treble on Wall Street. The three indices set new absolute records: Dow Jones +0,67% to 20.188,48 points, Nasdaq +0,66% to 5.720,03 points. The S&P 500 index (+0,64%) breaks through the technical barrier of 2.300 points, closing at 2.309,39.
The descent of bonds has come to a halt: the 2,40-year yield of the United States, which moves in reverse of the price, fell to 2,35% from 234% yesterday. New positive indications have arrived from the US labor market: last week there were 249 new applications for unemployment benefits, less than expected by economists, who on average expected XNUMX applications.
The prospect of an imminent tax cut has given wings to financials: the sector index +1,3% after three days of decline. Goldman Sachs rises by 1,6% and Morgan Stanley +2.
The quarterly Viacom, Kellogg and Prudential pushed up telecommunications, food and insurance. In contrast Coca Cola (-1,8%) and Intel (-1,2%). Noteworthy was the crash of Twitter (-12,3%) at the end of the weakest quarter since its listing in 2013: Trump's tweets do not help the income statement.
OILS PULL THE SPROCKET ALSO IN EUROPE. SAIPEM +3,7%
But both Wall Street and the European stock exchanges were driven upwards by energy stocks, which benefit from the rise in crude oil pending the release today of the IEA (International Energy Agency) data on global demand and production levels. Brent crude rose 0,8% to 55,5 dollars a barrel. Wti at 52,9 dollars (+1,1%).
A Goldman Sachs report states that the increase in hydrocarbon production in the USA will not slow down the rebalancing of the world market linked to the production cuts decided by OPEC and Russia. Prices, according to the broker, are destined to stabilize around current levels.
On Wall Street, the energy sector rose by one percentage point. Exxon +0,44%. The European markets are more effervescent. Eni gains 1,7%, Saipem +3,7%, Tenaris +1,7%. Shell and Total both gain 1,6%.
SPREAD DOWN, BULL OPENING IN SIGHT
Futures also signal a flying start for European stock exchanges. Paris, in particular, could score a robust +1,3% at the start, followed by Frankfurt (+0,9%). Also yesterday Piazza Affari accelerated in the finale: the Ftse Mib index closed at 18.947 points, up 1% in line with Paris (+1,3%), Frankfurt (+1%), London (+0,7, 1,2%) and Madrid (+XNUMX%).
Third consecutive closing on the rise for BTPs. The price trend suggests a certain optimism on tonight's Moody's verdict: the market is not discounting a downgrade of the Baa2 Italian sovereign rating, on which the agency issued a negative outlook following the resignation of Matteo Renzi.
The Italian 2,18-year bond fell by 2,25% from 188% at the end of the previous session. Yesterday. The spread against the same maturity of the Bund on is reduced to 195 basis points from 204 basis points on the previous day, moving away from 2014, the highest since February XNUMX, recorded on Wednesday.
Also arriving today is Moody's opinion on France (stable outlook, Aa2 rating). Yesterday the 1-year rate fell below XNUMX% for the first time in two weeks.
MID-MONTH AUCTIONS UNDERWAY, 8,5 BILLION BTP ON MONDAY
The mid-month auction cycle kicks off today, with the offer of 12-month Bots for 6,5 billion. At the end of the session, the February 2018 Bond discounted a negative yield of -0,235%, which if confirmed at the auction would show a rise from the all-time low of -0,250% of the January placement.
The appointment with the medium-long term auction on Monday is more challenging, when the Treasury will offer between 6,25 and 8,5 billion euros of 3, 7 and 30-year BTPs currently being issued and two off- the-run.
MEDIOBANCA LEADS THE RECOVERY OF BANKS. MPS LOSES 3,34 BILLION
The rise in the banking sector favored the rebound of the Milan Stock Exchange: the sector index, after a mixed morning, gained 0,99%.
Unicredit closed up 1,37%, slightly better than the market, on the day of the accounts which confirmed the loss of 13,6 billion already announced before the start of the increase. The president of the Crt Foundation, Giovanni Quaglia, confirmed that on Monday the board will give the go-ahead for the subscription of the increase for 230 million.
Mediobanca achieved an increase of 1,61%, after this morning it published the accounts and the conference call of the top management. The first half of the 2016-17 financial year closed with a net profit of 418,2 million, up 30,2% on the previous year. The figure is higher than the consensus of analysts (390 million).
Banco Bpm, down sharply in the morning, reduced the loss to 0,24%. Among the other banks, Intesa +0,4%, Banca. Pop. Emilia +1,5% after closing 2016 with a sharp drop in net profit to 14,3 million compared to 220,7 million in 2015. Ubi +3,6%.
Banca Monte Paschi, still suspended, it closed 2016 with a loss of 3,38 billion euros after having written down receivables for 2,59 billion. The bank said it had funding of $2016 billion in 104,6, down $14,7 billion from 2015. Funding outflows, the bank said, stopped in January.
UnipolSai (+0,37%) closed 2016 with a net profit of €527m, down from €710m a year earlier. Analysts were expecting an even heavier drop, generally estimating around 460 million euros. Net premiums at €3,1 billion, above estimates. The budget figures were released this morning.
GOES BACK FCA, MARCHIONNE: BAD RULES ON THE CAR
The recovery of Fiat Chrysler continues (+2,6%), recovering after the complaints about the engines. “The single market was created to avoid this mess, we have lawyers who are everywhere, and in all of this Europe has lost its way”, Sergio Marchionne said yesterday when asked about the various investigations. "Rules made badly, which are then interpreted differently by each country, are the most wrong solution that could have been invented", explained the manager. With regards to the investigations in the USA, the CEO says that the group is continuing to discuss “to try to resolve the situation. Now let's talk about the 2017 homologation - he concluded - then there will be a solution for previous years as well".
GOOD ENEL, FLY RECORD YOURSELF
Enel advances +1,4% after the preliminary 2016 data communicated in the early afternoon which showed revenues of 70,6 billion euros (75,7 billion euros in 2015, -6,7%), an ordinary Ebitda at 15,2. 15,0 billion euros (2015 billion euros in 1,3, +15,0%), an improvement on the target of 37,6 billion announced last November. Net financial debt amounted to 37,5 billion euro (2015 billion euro at the end of 0,3, +XNUMX%).
Fly Recordati (+4,04%) after announcing the results for 2016, which closed with a net profit of 237,4 million, up by 19,4%. In luxury, Tod's does well (+1,3%). Yoox +1,9%: Banca Akros reiterated the Buy opinion, reducing the target price to 30,70 euros from 31,30 euros.
