The week opens with a day of celebrations: US markets are closed for the Martin Luther King Day, President Donald Trump will be sworn in as the 47th President of the United States, the World Economic Forum in Davos with global leaders. The meeting of theEurogroup. The the climate is one of expectation for the first Trump's measures, who promised the signature of almost 100 executive orders within hours of taking office, while at a rally Sunday, he repeated promises to deport immigrants, cut regulations and free up energy resources. Analysts do not rule out a market retracement who have already priced practically everything. A phone call between Trump and Xi has eased fears in China. Meanwhile, futures anticipate a start on parity in European stocks.
Trump's First Steps: From TikTok to Digital Token
Trump will take the oath of office at noon Eastern Time (18 p.m. EDT) inside the Capitol Rotunda, with the cold weather forcing the ceremony indoors for the first time in 40 years.
Trump confirmed his unpredictability by saying he would “save” the Chinese social media app TikTok, which had been closed in the United States for national security reasons. On Friday it also launched a digital token, which initially had a strong rise before falling slightly after his wife, Melania Trump, has launched a separate token; even some experienced cryptocurrency investors have begun to worry about the speculative wave. Bitcoin, which has increased by more than 45% since Trump's election, came down of about 3% to $101.800.
Dollar falls from peaks
Il dollar, which had risen to multi-year highs in recent weeks, loses ground due to cautious trade in Asia. Investors had been selling bonds and buying dollars since mid-September, anticipating not only that Trump would boost growth but also that his measures could fuel inflation. Now they are ready to sell if the situation turns out differently. The idea is that it yuan will adjust slowly to any changes in trade policy and hit a two-week high of 7,3088 per dollar. The Australian dollar, sensitive to trade flows and the Chinese economy, had scratched five-year lows and could test resistance at $0,6322 if Trump's policy changes fail to live up to market expectations. It was last quoted at $0,6214. The yen strengthened last week after comments from Bank of Japan policymakers were seen as a sign that a rate cut was likely on Friday. It was slightly stronger at 155,97 per dollar in late trading, and rates markets have priced in about an 80% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike.
As for the raw materials, their settled at $2.706 an ounce and gold futures crude Brent crude fell on expectations that Trump might ease restrictions on Russia’s energy sector in exchange for a truce in Ukraine.
Eyes on China: Trump Calls Xi Jinping
Nearly all Asia Pacific stocks are up. China is in focus as the target of tougher potential trade taxes. Investors recently cheered data on Chinese growth better than expected and a Friday phone call between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping which left both optimistic. Relations between the two countries could be a key to interpreting policies. The Hang Seng Index of Hong Kong increased by 2,4% and the Chinese yuan has recovered. The CSI 300 index of Shanghai and Shenzhen stocks rose 0,9%. Taipei's TAIEX rose 0,6%. Singapore's Straits Times was unchanged. The People's Bank of China upheld benchmark lending rates and a Hong Kong court gave property developer Country Garden another two weeks to reach an agreement with creditors.
The Nikkei index of Tokyo gains 1,2% and the yen weakens to 155,9 to the dollar, from 155,4 on Friday. The stock market Alone is slightly down. The South Korean central bank (BOK) has lowered its growth estimates for the country for 2025, from 1,9% previously to 1,6-1,7% currently, due to the political crisis triggered by the imposition of the declaration of martial law on December 3 by President Yoon Suk-yeol, currently under arrest and under impeachment. The underlying reasons, according to a note, are martial law and "the ongoing political turbulence" that weigh on stability. The last quarter of 2024 has also been affected: in this regard, the BOK has assumed a GDP increase of "2-2,1%" for last year
European stocks move little without the US
Le European stock exchanges are seen opening little moved in the absence of US markets. The future on Eutosxx50 marks a +0,01%.
Germany, December production prices on a monthly basis -0,1%, down from the previous +0,5% (the forecast was +0,3%). On an annual basis +0,8%, up from the previous +0,1% (the forecast was +1,1%).
The yield of Btp 10 years is stable at 3,64%. On Friday 17th, the Ministry of Economy and Finance announced the issuance of the Btp Più which will take place from Monday 17th to Friday 21st February (until 13pm), barring early closure. It is the first security dedicated to small savers of the Btp Valore family with an early capital repayment option. It will have a duration of eight years, with fixed coupons paid every three months on the basis of a step up mechanism in two phases of four years each and a higher coupon rate in the second phase.
Enel and Snam they detach the dividend
Generali. This afternoon the board of directors will decide on the integration with Natixis in the managed savings Yesterday after the investment committee expressed a favorable orientation yesterday. However, the positive assessment of the operation was not adopted unanimously by the six members of the committee, the media write. Stefano Marsaglia did not share the considerations of the majority of the committee. Marsaglia was the only member of the committee from the list presented by the Caltagirone group, critical of the integration with Natixis.
Ita Airways. The capital increase operation of 325 million euros by Lufthansa in ITA Airways has been concluded, with a 41% share of the capital of the Italian company. The announcement came from the German group in a note. From today, therefore, the Italian flag carrier becomes part of the Lufthansa Group, becoming the fifth network airline of the group. The Lufthansa Group then specified that with the Ministry of Economy "options have been agreed for the acquisition of the remaining shares of Ita Airways, which can be exercised starting from this year".
Illimity. The board of directors announced the new organizational structure after the takeover bid launched by Banca Ifis on the institution. The reorganization highlights the departure of a historic manager and co-founder of the bank, Andrea Clamer, whom Passera had taken away from Banca Ifis in 2018 to found his own company, born from the combination of Spaxs, at the time the largest special purpose acquisition company (Spac) launched in Europe with Banca Interprovinciale. In illimity, Clamer was head of the Specialized Credit division.
Mfe is looking at the dossier relating to the Polish broadcaster TVN, a generalist TV network integrated into Warner Bros Discovery which is evaluating its sale, according to financial sources cited by The Newspaper. The network could be worth over 1 billion euros.
Team. The Court of Appeal of Rome will probably decide today on the government's request for a stay of payment of 1 billion euros to the telecommunications giant, in the context of the dispute over the 1998 concession fee. As of Friday, the parties had not, in fact, reached an agreement for a settlement agreement in view of the deadline set by the judges for January 20. Instead, the board of directors of Tim convened for January 22 may not deliberate on the sale of Sparkle given that the banks working on the dossier may need a few more days to define the financing, according to what was reported to Reuters from some sources.
Recordati has denied, together with its controlling shareholder Cvc, that there are negotiations for a merger with Angelini Pharma