While Trump announces “the great day of reciprocal duties”, the Study Center of Confindustria (Csc) raises the alarm: the America First Trade Policy is preparing to become even more “more aggressive e unpredictable” compared to the first mandate. I duties they could be just the beginning of a trade war which risks completely reshaping the geography of world trade, with significant implications for theEurope and, in particular, for theItaly. If on the one hand the risks they are concrete, on the other hand there is no lack opportunity that could emerge from these new global balances. For the CSC, Europe (including Italy) must be ready to respond with strategic choices that can determine its future competitiveness.
Escalating tariffs: a new phase in trade policy
According to the CSC, the new phase of Trump's trade policy could trigger aprotectionist escalation able to changing the rules of global trade. The United States, in fact, no longer focuses only on trade: its policy includes crucial issues such as national security, the defense of American industry and the strengthening of emerging technologies, in a context of growing competition with China.
As has already happened in the past - explains the CSC - the duties will be entirely passed on to the consumers, increasing prices and compressing margins companies. This dynamic will penalize consumers above all, but will also put pressure on countries like Italy, which could see their products hit by tariff increases.
Europe under pressure: the need to deal with the United States
The Confindustria Research Centre highlights that "it will be crucial to start negotiations with the Trump administration to reconcile mutual needs”. The historically solid economic relationship between Europe and the United States could suffer significant blows. If Europe fails to adapt promptly to new challenges, it risks losing ground. In this scenario, capital could flow to the US, a phenomenon “already underway”, the CSC underlines. The key for Europe will be to adopt more effective industrial policies and reduce the bureaucratic complexity that often holds back innovation.
Duties, sectors at risk: the numbers don't lie
THEItaly it is particularly vulnerable. According to the CSC, Italian exports are more exposed to US demand than the European average. In fact, 22,2% of Italian exports to non-EU countries are destined for the United States, compared to the European average of 19,7%. This makes it particularly sensitive to the effects of new duties and retaliation. sectors at risk <font style="vertical-align: inherit;" class="">:</font>
- Drinks: with a 39% share of Italian beverage exports going to the US, this sector could suffer a significant negative impact.
- Motor vehicles and means of transport: 30,7% of Italian motor vehicle exports and 34% of other means of transport are destined for the US market, making these sectors highly vulnerable.
- Pharmaceutical: with a share of 30,7%, the Italian pharmaceutical sector is among the most exposed, with potential damages due to an increase in costs and a decrease in exports.
The United States: A Strategic Partner, But with Lurking Risks
Despite the risks, the United States they remain a strategic partner crucial for theItaly. In 2024, in fact, theItalian export to the American market reached 65 billion euros, with a trade surplus of around 39 billion. This ratio played a decisive role in supporting the growth of Italian exports, especially after the pandemic, making the US a key destination for exports and fertile ground for direct investments.
- Italian investments in the United States amount to almost 5 billion euros per year, representing 27% of the total and making the United States the main destination for Italian investments abroad. American multinationals in Italy, for their part, are the most numerous, employing over 350 thousand people in 2022 and contributing significantly to national added value and research and development.
However, a worrying fact emerges: Italy sends almost 5 billion euros annually to the United States, while American investments in Italy stop at only 1,5 billion. This net capital outflow highlights the limited attractiveness of the Italian market for US investors, despite the strong presence of US multinationals in our country.
Opportunities: Knowing how to look beyond the risk
Beyond the risks, the CSC underlines that this new trade policy could also open opportunity for Italy and Europe. With the decoupling (the growing separation between the economies of the United States and China), market spaces are being freed up in which Europe could gain ground, taking advantage of less Asian competition. Sectors such as luxury and food could thrive thanks to the reorganization of global supply chains and the possible shift of consumers and investments towards Europe.
In addition, theItalian export could find new niches in sectors such as advanced technologies and financial services, far from competition with Beijing. If Trump's policy were to encourage the return of production chains to his country, European companies, including Italian ones, could diversify their supply chains, seeking new trade channels and strengthening transatlantic relations. Europe therefore has the opportunity to review its production model, to attract investments in strategic sectors and resume the role of technological leader in an increasingly competitive global context.
