The session closed in an almost euphoric way for the European lists. After a positive start, the Old Continent's Stock Exchanges shut down in anticipation of Jean Claude Trichet's press conference, at the end of the ECB directorate meeting. After the confirmation that the rates would remain unchanged, the lists have regained altitude. In the end, the Ftse/Mib closed with an increase of 0,6%. London (+0,82%), Paris (+1,06%) and Frankfurt (+1,41%) were also positive. Wall Street hovers around parity: Dow Jones +0,2%, S&P500 +01.%, Nasdaq -0,1%. The euro is weak against the dollar at 1,4507 (-0,5%). The dollar index, indicative of the performance of the greenback against a basket of six international currencies, fell by 0,5%. After gaining 1,6% yesterday, this morning the WTI marks a new rise of 0,5% to 101,2 dollars a barrel. Brent is trading at 117,9 dollars.
ECB, EURO RATES RISE ONLY IN JULY BUT US EXPORTS RISE TO RECORD LEVELS
“Strong vigilance on inflation”. Jean-Claude Trichet pronounces the magic formula which, in the jargon of the central bank, is to anticipate a rise in interest rates for the next meeting, scheduled for July even if, he was keen to specify "the ECB does not make commitments". But for now, the Eurozone key rate remains unchanged at 1,25%, as widely expected. Just as the formal go-ahead from the directorate for Mario Draghi's candidacy to succeed Trichet himself was taken for granted, who reiterated the clear opposition of the central bank to an extension of the maturities of the Greek debt, as suggested by Germany.
The absence of alarm signals from the Eurotower (the growth estimate of the EU-17 was high in the range 1,5-2,3%) has given some polish to the trend, however anemic, of the price lists equities, committed to interpreting the economic data arriving from the US to answer the most burning question: will the US economy be able to withstand the exhaustion of "quantitative easing"? Or, thanks to the rise in crude oil, is the "blackest" scenario, that of the double dip, about to come true?
The usual shower of data arriving from overseas does not offer unambiguous indications. New jobless claims rose to 427 last week from 426 a week earlier, while economists had expected a drop to 419. Meanwhile, confirming a slowdown in economic activity (linked to the Japanese earthquake), the trade imbalance decreases: the trade balance for April shows a deficit of 43,7 billion dollars, down on the 46,8 billion dollars of March (against the forecast of an expansion to 48,8 billion dollars). The tsunami probably also affected the trend in inventories in April (+0,8% against the expected 1%).
But, to give comfort to the (few optimistic) the data on exports stands out: American sales across the border in August rose to 13 percent of GDP, an absolute record for the stars and stripes economy. Perhaps, more than the numbers, what demonstrated a certain nervousness in the business community was Jamie Dimon's dry speech in front of Ben Bernanke, after the speech of the Fed president. The JP Morgan banker spoke out against the excesses of "regulation" and the new capital requirements imposed on banks after the crisis, after the many efforts already made.
FIAT, NEW BOND ARRIVES
The "new" Fiat (+2,39%) is in favor with analysts after the pro forma consolidated results. Sergio Marchionne who, as usual, does not intend to waste time, takes advantage of it by probing the market for a new bond issue. The first stage of the road show will obviously be London where the company will present itself with a large pool of arrangers: Citigroup, Mediobanca, Royal Bank of Scotland, Santander, Societe' Generale and Ubs. Fiat is rated Ba1 by Moody's, BB by S&P and BB+ by Fitch. As far as the assessments of Fiat-Chrysler are concerned, however, debt is considered by most to be “sustainable, while profitability could almost double according to the most optimistic estimates compared to the 2010 consolidated thanks also to the possible growing contribution of Chrysler. For the current year, considering the two companies separately, Fiat's net profit is expected to range from 320 to 480 million euros and that of Chrysler to between 90 and 400 million, while overall debt could be between 5 and around 7 billion in the worst case scenario, compared to the 8,56 billion contained in the pro-forma consolidated financial statements.
UNIPOL RISES UP
Unipol rebounded by 3,7% to 0,4192 euro, after yesterday's collapse (-7,8%) which brought prices to new historical lows of 0,40 euro. In the morning, corporate sources denied that a capital increase is being studied. compared with the current parameters. This is an indicator of the solidity of the insurance sector. However, Unipol has lost 11% since the beginning of the year
OIL AND PRYSMIAN ON SHIELDS
Great day for industrialists owned by Tip, from Prysmian (+3,7), to Interpump (+2,07%). Good increases for Eni which rises by 1,4%, on a par with Enel. it earns 1,4%. Among the banks, after a high-voltage session, Bpm (+3,5%) and Bpm (+2,7%) closed in recovery.
