La 2019 Budget Law it's worth everything 37 billion euros, of which approx 22 will be covered in deficit, Other 6,9 they will come from spending cuts e 8,1 da revenue increases. Economy Minister Giovanni Tria said this on Wednesday in a hearing before the House and Senate Budget Committees.
"Following the failure to validate the macroeconomic framework programmatic by the Parliamentary Budget Office - he added - the Government deems it appropriate confirm the forecasts contained in the update note to the Economic and Financial Document".
According to the number one of the Treasury, the assessments of the Parliamentary Budget Office are based "on forecasts that have been published at different times, in different contexts therefore partial or obsolete".
In any case, Tria said he wanted to interpret “the PBO's objection as a spur to action rather than a reason to lower our forecasts and, more importantly, our ambitions. We therefore hope for a mutual and fruitful collaboration in the evaluation process of the imminent budget law, taking into consideration the findings and observations of the competent subjects".
In respect of the work "of the authorities involved - added the minister - but also of the prerogatives of our task of directing economic policy, we will continue to build a collaborative climate in the awareness that all measures can only fully deploy their effects within a framework institutional coordination".
For the increase in the spread, “certainly arouses concern – Tria said again – but I want to reiterate that it is a overreaction, not justified from the fundamentals of the Italian economy and public finance”.
Finally, the minister focused on some numbers of the next budget manoeuvre: "In 2019, 6,9 billion in spending cuts e 8,1 billion in revenue increases, in 2020 3,9 billion for each of the items and in 2021 respectively 4,7 billion and 5,2 billion".
THE MAIN MEASUREMENTS IN OPERATION
Among the expansive measures of the maneuver, Tria cited the partial deactivation of the increase in VAT rates, which entails a burden of 12,5 billion in 2019, 5,5 billion in 2020 and 4 billion in 2021. The impact on the GDP growth rate should be equal to +0,2 percentage points in 2019 and in 2020 and -0,2% in 2021.
On the front of social spending, continued the minister, the main changes are citizenship income , pension reform. The cost is 16 billion in each of the three years. Overall, these interventions would translate into an increase in the rate of change of GDP of 0,3 percentage points in 2019 and 0,2 percentage points in 2020 and 2021, compared to the trend.
La first phase of the flat tax it will cost 0,6 billion in 2019, 1,8 billion in 2020 and 2,3 billion in 2021. The effect on GDP, Tria underlined, is contained and will reach 0,1% in 2021.
As for the public investments, the maneuver provides for additional resources with an increasing profile of 3,5 billion in 2019, 5 billion in 2020 and 6,5 billion in 2021. The impact on GDP is equal to 0,2 percentage points each year.
Other expansive measures concern the incentives for investment and innovation and spending interventions for the public employment for an amount of 1,8 billion in 2019, 3,2 in 2020 and 4,1 in 2021. The impact on GDP is 0,1 points in 2019 and 2021 while it is almost nil in 2020.
