The physiognomy of the new government on economic policy is beginning to emerge, despite the vagueness of Prime Minister Conte's speech in the Chambers. On the League side, we have a strong line of economic policy that hinges on a massive cut in income taxes and petrol excises (this aimed specifically at taxi drivers and road hauliers: sic!) and on open challenge to the European rules on public budget and debt, with the not so disguised goal of taking Italy out of the euro, probably also out of the EU.
Professor Savona, who knows the economy, clarified in the famous 80 slides (see the document on Huffington Post Italia) that the exit from the euro - with a devaluation of the lira by at least 30% - requires the introduction of extensive controls on financial flows and a substantial restructuring of our public debt, not to mention the widespread defaults of private debtors indebted to the strong euro that the slides do not mention.
On the side of the grillini, however, the line is simply to listen to all the complaints of the electorate, removing the constraints that prevent them from being satisfied and offering general protection not only against competitive pressures and the market, but in general against any limit of responsibility in behaviour.
Thus, one of the first acts of the Giunta Raggi was to abolish the obligation to stamp the badge in the workplace at Atac and Ama, already afflicted by impressive absenteeism rates. But now comes the CBI for all the unemployed (as long as they agree to look for a job, but the reform of employment centres it will take years).
Via the Jobs Act, via the European Directive on services; but, in exchange, space for the judges with ever more penetrating measures against the corruption (via the statute of limitations), amplified powers to the Anac (which is already trying to block any administrative discretion in public procurement, which will end up blocking completely), class action galore to reimburse poor users of public utilities, full reimbursement of savers who have invested in failed banks.
And then not Tav, Tap and Wax, "progressive" closure of theIlva, nationalization ofAlitalia, which loses money at the mouth of a barrel and cannot survive on its own, so pay the taxpayer. Up to the participation of local parliamentarians in meetings at the Mise for the management of corporate crises. What will happen with such promises to productivity and private investment is easy to predict.
The announced simplification of the rules takes the form of a general forgiveness tax pending payments (moreover with promises of income out of this world: since the known amount of those pending payments is around 50 billion, even imagining a total participation in the scheme, how could their liquidation at 15 or even 25% ever produce income for 50 or 60 billion?) together with the elimination of many assessment tools, in a country where the rate of VAT evasion is estimated at 40% and the shadow economy between 15 and 20% of GDP.
And then, icing on the cake, one pension reform with a variable cost between 5 and 30 billion, according to how much the benefits will extend. Which only affect the old, pay the young even more. Therefore, it should come as no surprise that the spread between BTPs and German Bunds continues to rise; the initial anti-euro message weighs a ton, so far denied without conviction.
But there is finally some good news: in an extensive interview with Corriere yesterday, Professor Tria, the new minister of the economy, outlines reform and financial responsibility policies in perfect negation of the positions of his political shareholders. If he holds, we can save ourselves.
