“If I now told you that the government has a target of 1,7%, what would you think? I imagine you would be thinking of net borrowing, while I could be referring to GDP growth. It is a cognitive deviation, but the objective is first growth, then the budget. With the awareness that growth is a fixed goal, so I guarantee once again that we will not go beyond the deficit”. With this provocation, and at the same time reassurance, the Minister of Economy Giovanni Tria opened his speech, at the close of the Ambrosetti Forum in Cernobbio, never as this year marked by a strong political presence (yesterday the interventions of Salvini and Conte) and by a certain caution of the great financial powers, especially banks, some of which even deserted the traditional end-of-summer meeting.
Tria also recalled the forecasts for Italian GDP in 2018 and 2018, slowing down to 1,3% and 1,1% respectively: “It must be said that there is also a slowdown for average European growth, even if every year, whether it's growth or stagnation or recession, we always have about one point less than the European average. This is because the policies followed so far have never reduced this gap". The first problem, as discussed before the minister's speech, on the occasion of the presentation of the Ambrosetti studio, is productivity: “Productivity depends in particular on two factors: the efficient allocation of resources and technological innovation, which in turn is affected by the speed of progress and the speed of its diffusion throughout the world. This speed has posed and still poses new problems, the task of politics is to govern the transition”.
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Hence the inevitable Schumpeter's quote on "creative destruction". To face it, growth is needed: “The low growth is due to low investments, both private and public. In Italy, the data tell us that we have excess savings. Investments must be increased to support welfare, which must defend the losers of the destructive phase of the economic transition". An argument useful to claim the citizen's income instrument, which Tria cited, however reiterating the words expressed by his government colleagues on Saturday and that is of "a balanced manoeuvre", which however "will not start a strong reform without the others, because it would be an unbalanced manoeuvre".
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The idea is therefore to make the basic income coexist with the other major reforms on the table, starting with pensions and taxes. All together, but gradually: “I followed a cautious line right from the start, also with Europe: GDP growth and debt reduction. The reduction of the debt to GDP ratio means a strengthening of Italy's presence on the markets. And this is important for a government that has growth as its primary objective”. Meanwhile, on the sidelines, Palazzo Chigi denied in a note the news leaked yesterday according to which Prime Minister Conte spoke of a tax amnesty. “It will rather be an organic reform in which the taxpayer will be able to enter the new tax regime by eliminating the outstanding debts. As for concessions and nationalisations, there are no ideological options".
