After the astonishment of the vote on Sunday and Monday, the political forces are starting to think about the scenarios of the new legislature which is under the banner of ungovernability. Currently, there are basically three possible scenarios:
1) VERY GOVERNMENT PD-PDL, i.e. the Bersani-Berlusconi alliance: he would certainly have the numbers to govern both in the Chamber and in the Senate, but an agreement between the two opposite poles is very difficult, if not impossible, for at least two good reasons. In the first place because the lacerations of the campaign electoral are difficult to mend in the short term and the conflicts between Pd and Pdl are atavistic. Secondly, because a very government would leave an enormous space for Grillo's opposition which could further increase its booty in the next elections.
2) PD-GRILLO GOVERNMENT: it is the temptation that is rising in the more radical sectors of the left. The first to propose it was naturally Nicki Vendola who, despite Sel's and his personal failure in Puglia, still thinks he can dictate the law to the swinging Pd and sees smoke and mirrors every glance at the center of Bersani. Even faced with such a prospect, which would enjoy a majority in both the Senate and the House, there are mainly three objections: two political and a third programmatic. On the political level, it is highly unlikely that Grillo will want to spend his political treasure on the altar of an alliance with Bersani and the Democratic Party and, if that were to happen, he would open the door to a frontal opposition from Berlusconi who has already shown that he has seven lives. On a programmatic level, it would be, to say the least, problematic to reconcile the Fiscal Compact and the European commitments that Italy is required to honor on public finances with Grillo's populist and often anti-euro positions.
3) PORCELLUM REFORM AND NEW ELECTIONS – The recourse to new elections in six to twelve months is not as lunar as it might seem at first glance, but the difficulties of forming a government could bring it closer. Returning to the vote without deleting the infamous Porcellum, which is at the origin of the ungovernability, would however be a contradiction. However, there are also two boulders on this road. The first: how to find a minimum of consensus on the reform or archiving of Porcellum even from those who have benefited from its advantages? Second: in this intermediate period, what kind of government is there?
