La pandemic completely changed the local public transport (TPL) and mobility in Italy as a whole. Also for the years 2022 and 2023 there is a level of demand still below the pre-Covid levels with an estimated decrease, compared to 2019, equal to -21% for 2022 and -12% for 2023 due to theexponential increase in energy costs. They are the main points that emerged from the Intesa Sanpaolo-Asstra relationship “The performance of local public transport companies”.
The report reveals that the decline in passengers carried has resulted in lower revenues for the sale of travel tickets which, taking into account the lost earnings and the emerging costs attributable to the emergency, are quantifiable for 2022 in an amount of no less than 1 billion euros, while forecasting a recovery in demand up to 80% of pre-pandemic levels. This loss does not currently find any compensation measure.
"The LPT is experiencing a unique situation," he stressed Andrea GibelliAsstra president. On the one hand there are the investments envisaged by the PNRR and national ones, on the other an entrepreneurial fabric tested by the persistence of the pandemic, by expensive energy and by the rise in raw material prices, added Gibelli, underlining the need for government intervention for the sector .
While Laura Campanini, head of local public finance studies and research at Intesa Sanpaolo said: “The year that has just ended was affected by the only partial recovery in demand, insufficient refreshments and the initial tensions on the energy markets. The mix of critical issues that companies are facing in 2022 will lead to an inevitable erosion of company margins and profitability with a major impact on the economic and financial balance".
She intervened on the study Giuseppina Gualteri, vice president of Asstra and president and CEO of Tper: "In this difficult period, it provides a concrete and measurable contribution to the analysis of the situation in the sector and the companies that operate in it: the estimates in fact provide concrete evidence and ideas useful for all stakeholders".
Local public transport in crisis: 2020 billion passengers lost in 2,2
In the pre-Covid era, the system of local and regional public transport companies employed over 124 people. With around 49 vehicles, over 1,8 billion car-km were traveled annually and 228,6 million train-km, carrying more than 5,5 billion passengers. The industry as a whole produced a turnover of approximately 12 billion euros.
Between 2019 and 2020 there was a 21% decrease in car journeys and a 58% drop in journeys by public transport.
The passengers transported have decreased by almost 47%: if in 2019 the passengers transported by the companies in the sample amounted to 4,6 billion, in 2020 2,2 billion will be lost.
PNRR: fundamental lever for a new model of sustainable mobility
Added to the devastating effects of Covid is the exponential increase in traction energy costs which is significantly affecting the economic and financial balance of the sector. In the first four months of 2022, it is estimated that the companies that carry out LPT services, including railways, subject to public service obligations, faced an expenditure of approximately 220 million euros higher than in the same period of 2020 and 2021 for the purchase of fuel and electricity for traction. Unlike other public utilities sectors, the public transport sector does not have the ability to pass the increased costs on to the user, as the report highlights.
The total amount of investment financing for the local public transport sector it is equal to over 32,4 billion euros (national resources, PNRR, FNC, and other sources of funding until 2033).
According to Asstra estimates, the new resources provided by PNRR and FNC, in addition to the National Strategic Sustainable Mobility Plan (PSNMS), contribute to reversing the expected aging trend of road rolling stock.
However, the significant injection of resources will not allow the completion of the process of replacing pre-Euro IV vehicles according to the timescales established by current legislation.
Local public transport chasing 1,6 billion to avert the crisis
The additional cost to reach an average age of the circulating bus fleet of 7,2 years by 2026 (in line with the European average age which is approximately 7 years) is equal to 1,6 billion euro, of which over 1,1 billion euros from additional state resources. A new injection of resources of this magnitude would make it possible to register, in the period 2022-2026, 5.000 additional buses compared to current forecasts.
On the investment front, the balance sheet data of a sample of companies confirm the intensity of the companies' effort: in 2018 and 2019 at the median level, companies invest more than 9% of the value of production in tangible assets. Also in 2020, despite the pandemic, companies in the sector continued to invest significantly, equal to 6,5% of their turnover at the median level.
The growth trend in investments continued in 2021 and in 2022: in 2021 businesses are estimated to further accelerate their spending, which should increase by 21,6% compared to 2020. In 2022, investment spending is expected to accelerate further and could achieve a +27% compared to the previous year.
If we focus exclusively on companies with public participation, according to the ran in 2020 the companies that close in profit drop to 76% even if 93% of them manage to maintain a positive gross operating margin (GOM), demonstrating their ability to generate wealth through operational management and thanks to a government policy which guaranteed the full compensation of lost traffic revenues and the safeguarding of service contract fees.
