The leader of the Muslim Brotherhood party, an engineer with a master's degree in the United States, is officially Egypt's first democratically elected non-military president. It is an important victory for the North African country, where the armed forces have held power since the establishment of the Republic in 1952. Justice and Freedom, the Islamist party of the Muslim Brotherhood, represents the most influential and best-rooted religious movement in the territory of throughout the Arab world. It is therefore no coincidence that Mohamed Morsi managed to beat his opponent and former prime minister of Mubarak, Ahmed Shafiq.
But beyond the historical importance of the Muslim Brother's victory, it must be recognized that in his hands the powers still remain limited, if not null. Morsi, in fact, will only be a transitional president, he will not have any type of executive power. The armed forces continue to hold the knife by the handle but have found a balance with the civilian leader: the military manages security and foreign policy, while Morsi will try to recover the weak economy and fragile institutions. And Morsi seems to be the right man to do it: foreign powers like him, especially the United States, and the president of the International Monetary Fund, Christine Lagarde, immediately prepared to remind the new Egyptian president of her availability for a loan of 3,2 .XNUMX billion dollars. A loan which, if it takes place, would be the definitive link for Egypt with the USA and the Western world.
The challenges facing Egypt in the coming weeks are the drafting of a new constitution, parliamentary elections, the relationship between the military and civilians, and the presidential or parliamentary nature of the political system. Morsi's skill will lie in managing not to be crushed between the generals and the expectations of the Egyptian, which are already starting to make themselves felt. But with international backing, that might not be such a difficult task.
And what about the risk of an Islamist drift? According to the professor of international relations at the London School of Economics (LSE), Fawaz Gerges, the power of the military is much more dangerous. The Muslim Brotherhood has a relatively modern party and accepts democratic values in forging the political future of their society. In recent years the party has established itself as an alternative to the authoritarian order and has invested heavily in building social networks and networks at the local and national levels.
There is therefore no need to fear the explosion of Islamic power for three reasons. First, the Muslim Brotherhood they are slowly moving away from their traditional view which asked them to impose Islamic law and rather they want to create a "civilized Islam" that permeates society and accepts political pluralism. Secondly, Islamic parties are increasingly aware that political legitimacy and the possibility of re-election lies in the ability to offer jobs, achieve economic growth and demonstrate transparency. The example of Turkey and its economic success has had a great impact on all Arab parties who understand that capitalism and Islamism are mutually reinforcing and compatible. And Turkey itself is starting to look at the Egyptian case with interest. Thirdly, finally, the Muslim Brotherhood they have shown that they are willing to work with Western countries when interests converge.
But the ghost of the military continues to hover over Egypt. But if in the short run the military can continue to lead the country, in the long run they would be fighting a losing battle. A public opinion has matured which has forced the generals to retire and a political class which is increasingly convinced that the armed forces must leave power to a democratically elected authority. In this sense, the triumph of Morsi is the first step towards the end of the domination of the military in Egypt. Because it is they, not the Islamists, who are the only real threat to the country's stability.
