A few weeks after the bursting of the third Asian speculative bubble, the Economic Studies Office of SACE - the Italian Export Credit Agency - effectively summarizes the key issue of market reliability (attachment). In fact, if a lesson comes back to the eyes of exporters every time we witness phenomena of such magnitude as the Chinese financial bubble, it is that globalization is now an irreversible process of economic and financial interdependence from which no one can consider themselves excluded.
The SACE Economic Studies Office, through the collection of the main economic variables in terms of trade (country risk, foreign debt, currency reserves, etc.), draws up a list of countries where our national exports are liable to less or more risks and – surprisingly – China is not among the latter. Despite the events of the last few months - which can be summed up in a spiral of investments of a speculative nature contracted on themselves and not without warnings («financial capital had already begun to take off months ago with the 400 billion USD out of China in the first half of the year") -, China is still an objective that can be pursued and pursued for the development of Italian business (although it attracts only 2,6% of Italian exports) and without particular dissuasions from the Research Department itself, since it is in fact a reality with a limited external debt and abundant foreign exchange reserves which make it little vulnerable to external shocks.
Like the People's Republic, Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, Algeria, Poland and India are also considered low vulnerability scenarios where to direct national exports. The first three stand out for their abundance of currency reserves which, in particular, allow Arabia and the UAE to overcome the current economic phase characterized by the drop in the price of commodities; Poland and India, on the other hand, make Made in Italy competitive with respect to local productions thanks to the appreciation of the respective currencies.
Midway between high and low risk countries of vulnerability are Egypt, Indonesia, Mexico, Chile, Colombia, Malaysia, Nigeria, South Korea and Thailand. For the first two, in particular, the classification among medium-risk economies is due to the scarcity of foreign reserves but for both the growth prospects are positive: +5,2% for Indonesia and +4% for Egypt (IMF, World Economic Outlook 2015).
In the grid of the most vulnerable countries in the event of economic shocks, we find South Africa, Turkey and the first two members of the BRICs, Brazil and Russia, which are experiencing opposite scenarios to those of India and China. In fact, where the Asian economies are able to make do with a balanced external debt and favorable exchange rates for European exports, the Russian Federation faces still very fragile growth prospects and the depreciation of the ruble which occurred between 2014 and 2015 is not incentive to export to the country. Brazil then, for its part, is experiencing a moment of not negligible economic fragility; The part last 10 September it came to sell almost 3% of its value against the dollar, the country's GDP is expected to decrease by 1% and recently the S&P downgraded the national debt to BB+ level. But Brazil is not the only reality on the Latin American continent to present a high risk of vulnerability: Argentina is also among the economies labeled with the red dot and the situation in which the country is apparently paradoxical“the low value of foreign debt is the result of the impossibility for the country to access international markets due to the default of last year".
Exporters are warned.
Attachments: focus-on—quant-39-�-profonda-la-tana-del-bianconiglio (1).pdf
