The most delicate phase of the Ukrainian crisis which is contrasting Russia (and perhaps even China) with all of the West coincides with one leadership crisis on the future structures of the Atlantic Alliance. and thepost of general secretary is assuming a much more delicate profile from a political point of view than in the past.
In October, the new NATO secretary general is chosen
At the beginning of the 2022 Jens Stoltenberg, a Norwegian, NATO secretary general, was about to leave his post after eight years and was preparing to take over as the new director of the Central Bank of Norway. Then, to call everything into question, he thought about the invasion of Ukraine by Russian troops on February 24, 2022. At that point, Stoltenberg got an extension which will expire on October 1 this year. Stoltenberg is fully aware that he does not enjoy the unanimous support of the Member States at all (even some large Northern European countries) and has already prudently let it be known that he does not intend to ask for another extension.
But if the mechanism for the selection and candidacy of the new NATO secretary general (the result of informal consultations only with the heads of state and government of the 31 member countries) were to get stuck during the next NATO summit in Vilnius scheduled for 11 and 12 July next, a mini-extension for Stoltenberg, at least until April 2024 (date for the celebration of the 75th anniversary of the Alliance) would not be ruled out at all.
Von der Leyen from the EU Commission to NATO?
Mini-extension which, at that point, Stoltenberg would gladly accept and would, moreover, be reconciled with the time necessary for the outgoing president of the Commission, Ursula von der Leyen to run for NATO leadership leaving her current position after the European elections in spring 2024. Some NATO member states, starting with Germany, have in fact suggested to the President of the Commission to stand for the “after Stoltenberg” and even France has no reason to oppose it. Instead, she is quite obvious the opposition of the United Kingdom who has little faith in von der Leyen's capabilities in the military and security sector despite having been the German government's defense minister in the past.
But it would have been the same von der Leyen recently to deny rumors of his candidacy. "The president is not a candidate for that post," a von der Leyen spokesman cut short Politico, «and has no comment on this hypothesis». In reality, the current president of the Commission would aim for one reconfirmed in his current position as a "spitzenkandidat" of the Ppe which at that point would also be voted on by the Berlin government.
Wallace on pole. Sanchez, Kallas and Rutte are also in the running
The totonomine currently sees the current British defense minister in pole position Ben Wallace, much appreciated by his colleagues during the summits of the Atlantic Council, an excellent relationship with the Italian Defense Minister, Guido Crosetto also for the numerous collaboration relationships in the Italian (Leonardo) and English defense industry. It is not excluded that the British premier Rishi Sunak spoke about it with the Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni on a visit to London last Thursday and Friday. His candidacy could give the United Kingdom a strong presence again in Brussels after Brexit and more than 20 years after the last secretary general of NATO, former defense secretary George Robertson (of which the Italian ambassador Alessandro Minuto Rizzo was deputy secretary general).
But the Spanish premier has also been included in the totonomine for a few weeks Pedro Sanchez and the current Prime Minister of Estonia Kaja kallas, 45 years old, in office since 2021 and belonging to a party that has just swept the parliamentary elections by siding very harshly against Russia and China. Mark Rutte, Dutch prime minister since 2010, another potential candidate, is perceived, on the contrary, for his too compliant posture towards Russia and China. Furthermore, Holland does not have a great military tradition and still seems far from reaching the objective shared by the NATO countries, ie reaching 2% of GDP in military spending.
The US wants Draghi, but he says no
It's Italy? In recent months, the United States, on more than one occasion, albeit informally, have leaked their convinced support for a candidacy of the former Italian prime minister, Mario Draghi to new general secretary. A sort of compensation as promised by the former US president, Barack Obama to the President of the Republic, Giorgio Napolitano, in September 2015 after the "tripping" by Washington which wrecked the candidacy of the former EU minister and commissioner, Franco Frattini to the full advantage of the appointment of the Norwegian Stoltenberg after the Danish Rasmussen.
On the name of Draghi also the current Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni would have had no hesitation in supporting him. If Draghi himself had not, in the meantime, struck down all assumptions to about. Even the former defense minister, Antonio Martino gave up running for NATO secretary general "due to personal problems" during the Berlusconi government despite having obtained the full support of US defense secretary Rumsfeld. The only Italian NATO secretary general thus remains Ambassador Manlio Brosio. But it was the year 1964.
Italy could still obtain a form of compensation in the event that the current Chief of Staff of the Italian Defence, Admiral Giovanni Cavo Dragone was appointed to lead the NATO Military Committee, a first-rate operational body in the hierarchy of the Alliance where Giampaolo di Paola and Guido Venturoni had already served in the past. Unless some country objects too much to Admiral Cavo Dragone's 66 years, which will reach 70 at the end of his mandate.
In the meantime, what a diplomat said to the magazine always remains a "mantra". Foreign Policy regarding the appointment of the NATO secretary: "It is the least transparent appointment of all the elections".
