Allez, faites vos jeux. Screw corn, be quick. This is more or less what Vincent Bollorè, this time in the role of president of Vivendi, will repeat in next Sunday's meeting with Marco Patuano, CEO of Telecom Italia in search of the necessary means to advance a proposal on Gvt, the object of desire in society but also of the members, and former friends, of Telefonica.
On August 28, in fact, the Vivendi board will have to rule on the indecent offer (more than ten times the operating margin) by Cesar Alierta, Telefonica's number one, on Gvt, Vivendi's Carioca subsidiary that the Spanish manager, like a new Don Rodrigo, wants to prevent at all costs that he marries with Tim Brasil, Telecom Italia's Brazilian jewel.
The reason? Gvt, which stands for Global Village Telecom, has never produced a single real of profit but, thanks to a brand new fiber optic network, it is already a protagonist in both broadband and pay TV where it already has more than 700 subscribers (against 5 million A&T). Together with Tim Brasil, present in the mobile market, it could create a leading group, present in both the fixed and mobile markets, as the Brazilian authorities would like. And as Alierta absolutely does not want, which would thus lose Vivo's market leadership, defended by any means, including the presence in Telecom Italia.
The seller, ie the French Vivendi chaired since last June by Vincent Bolloré, thus finds itself tipping the balance of Telecom Italia's future. A defeat in Brazil, in fact, would significantly reduce the appeal of Tim Brasil, too small to compete with Telefonica-Gvt. On the contrary, an industrial, as well as financial, alliance with Vivendi in Latin America could be the antechamber of an axis with Vivendi to be developed also in Europe, starting from Italy. Hence the importance of the game that will be played on August 28 on the board of the Parisian multimedia group.
In favor of Telecom Italia's chances is the fact that Bolloré, "cold" in the face of the pre-emption offer on the share in the Italian company (why, they say in Paris, take on the burdens of such an indebted group..), did not consider necessary to convene an ad hoc council to examine the proposal arriving from Madrid. These days Vivendi has no need for cash: after the sale of the majority of Sfr to Numericable, in addition to the exit from Maroc Telecom and Activision Blizzard, a video game producer, the group boasts liquidity exceeding 2 billion.
On the contrary, Bolloré intends to rebuild a network of alliances with the TLCs that will make it possible to make the most of the content warehouse of Canal + and Universal Music. In addition to retaining 20% of Sfr (which he, unlike his predecessor Jean Marc Fourou, would not have sold), an alliance with Telecom Italia is therefore welcome. After all, the Breton financier, vice president and second shareholder of Mediobanca, can only look favorably on an axis with the Italian group, well known to Mediobanca and Generali, where Tarak Ben Ammar has always played a significant role, another key figure in view of a possible expansion of the alliance to Mediaset. It is no coincidence that Bolloré, even before Telefonica's shock offer, had met with Pier Silvio Berlusconi to discuss possible entry into the Premium platform.
In short, an offer from Patuano to Vivendi to be presented in view of the board meeting of the French group on August 28 would not be badly received. Indeed, it would be necessary to immediately stop any development of the Telefonica dossier. But, Bolloré will point out, Telecom Italia will have to demonstrate the seriousness of its intentions with a robust recapitalization of Tim Brasil to allow the new hub to debut worthy of its ambitions.
It is unlikely that the objective can be achieved without a capital increase with an uncertain outcome: Telefonica's no is taken for granted, the judgment of Telco's Italian partners (Generali, Intesa and Mediobanca) is already laborious, already on the way out. Marco Fossati's Findim is probably in favour, the warmest towards the alliance with Gvt, the attitude of institutional investors which could include old/new acquaintances of the Telecom dossier, starting with Vito Gamberale, is decisive.
Meanwhile Marco Patuano tries to gather the financial strength at his disposal, also trusting in the industrial appeal of the process. Of course, given the situation, it is necessary to rake in all the money available. A small obstacle fits into this framework: the postponement of the sale of Telecom Argentina to Fintech by 15 days to September XNUMXst, as required by the contract signed on 13 November 2013. A delay that can be explained by the uncertainties related to the tango bond dispute between the government and some US funds which could also affect the Gvt dossier. Hoping that Bolloré will side with les italiens that he now knows all too well.
