Today's Spanish elections will be the first test of the contagion effect of Brexit but it is difficult to say in which direction the sensational result of the British referendum will influence Spain's vote: it could stroke independence and anti-EU pressures or, conversely, strengthen pro-European parties. But will a government finally come out of the polls for Madrid? Are the grand coalition or the caretaker government options on paper? And between Spain and Italy who is better off economically and politically? This is what FIRSTonline asked Irene Tinagli, an economist and professor in Spanish universities and now a member of the Democratic Party. Here are her answers.
Mr Tinagli, how will Brexit affect Sunday's Spanish election? Will Spain's vote be the first field on which to test whether Brexit really has a contagious effect on pro-independence supporters and populists in every country? Will the Catalan referendum be topical again?
“Certainly the Brexit Referendum has raised some fear and uncertainty about the future of Europe. However, how this fear will affect the electorate is not easy to predict. It could bring voters closer to the more pro-European parties and in favor of the Spanish national union - in an attempt to guarantee stability and unity - or it could stimulate an emulation effect and revive the separatists and anti-EU. I hope on the first option, relying on the fact that, despite having many autonomous souls, Spain is traditionally a pro-European country".
In addition to Brexit, in the last days of the Spanish electoral campaign, old and new scandals have come to the fore which have affected both the Popolari, for alleged manipulations in the Catalan referendum, and Podemos for alleged funding received from Chavez's Venezuela: how much will these weigh on the vote facts?
“They will weigh a lot, but more than on the vote they will weigh on the non-vote in the sense that abstention will greatly increase. In general, however, I think that the scandals involving the Popolari will have much more weight than the question of Podemos's questionable funding. Movements that present themselves as new, pure, anticasta, etc. they tend to be more resistant and resistant to scandals because they are more easily able to make people believe in a conspiracy against them. We also see it outside of Spain”.
Some say that the Spanish vote of 26 June will repeat the previous one, making it once again difficult to form a government: what do you think?
“I think the only significant difference from the December 20 election will be an increase in abstention. And there is the unknown factor of the duel between the Socialists and Podemos-Unidos, in fact the alliance between Podemos and Izquierda Unita could overcome the Socialists, establishing itself as the leading force on the left. This would be a politically important fact, but I fear it would not change much in terms of governance".
Could the latest events push the PSOE to cross the Rubicon and give the green light to the grand coalition with the Popolari?
“I don't think so, especially if Rajoy doesn't step aside. Relations - even personal ones - between Rajoy and Sanchez are bad, I exclude any possibility of an alliance between them. The only scenario in which such an alliance could be possible is a step back from Rajoy. I will say more: this would be even more possible if the socialists were to have bad results, causing a step back for Sanchez, who could also lose the next congress. Faced with such a scenario, one could think of a coalition government between the popular, socialists and ciudadanos. But I see it as difficult to achieve".
On the eve of the vote what is, in your opinion, the real state of health of the PPI, the PSOE, Podemos and Ciudadanos?
“The PPI is currently moving forward by inertia, relying on a hard core of voters loyal to the government's good economic results, but it is unable to innovate and grow seriously. The PSOE has attempted renewal with Sanchez who, however, does not seem up to the task, also because he is being crushed on the left by Podemos and on the right by Ciudadanos. Difficult to make room in this grip. Podemos had lost some momentum in recent months, but the alliance with Izquierda Unida, which has an electoral base rooted in the area, could help Podemos not only mask its stalemate but also gain positions. Ciudadanos is the biggest unknown. It is the party that could gain the most from the crisis of the parties and from Podemos' radicalization to the left, but it has an electorate that has always been very volatile and the figure of its leader, Albert Rivera, has become a bit worn out, too overexposed and perhaps even not very empathic for many”.
What would happen if the electoral result did not allow for the formation of a stable government? Should Spain resign itself to a caretaker government or a minority government supported from outside by whoever is in it?
“It's a question that everyone has been asking for months, because everyone predicts that nothing will change with new elections. However, no one is able to identify an adequate technical figure and this element too perhaps represents the failure of a season and of a ruling class. In fact, the highest public leaders in Spain are traditionally chosen by politics and many of them have been overwhelmed by scandals in recent years, or in any case have followed the decline of the parties. And today there is a feeling that there is a lack of authoritative and independent figures. Nor will it be easy to bring minorities to agreement, as we have seen in recent months. To complicate everything must be added the attitude of the King, who up to now has shown little charisma and no willingness to intervene to stimulate/force a solution".
Do you agree with those who maintain that if Spain had an electoral law like the Italicum it wouldn't risk becoming ungovernable?
“Technically this is exactly the case, governance would necessarily exist, because there would be a ballot and whoever wins it governs. the problem is that this electoral tool is perfect for a bipolar system but in this case in Spain we even have a quadripartite system and governance would be forced, it would be to the detriment of representation, with high abstention and truly unpredictable outcomes”.
What effects are the political torments having on the Spanish economy?
“For now, there are few, the inertia linked to past reforms is still driving production and consumption. The Spanish economy also grew by 0,8 in the first quarter of 2016, suggesting an annual growth rate of 3,4%, a little less than last year, but still one of the best results in Europe. The debt, on the other hand, remains high, and a politically legitimized government that can take back the reins a little would be useful. As long as the electoral campaign lasts and there is no government on that front, little can be done".
On Monday at the European football championships there is a match between Italy and Spain, but on a political and economic level today who is better off between Italy and Spain?
“On the political level, Italy is much better off, because it has a coach in the saddle who represents it in Europe and in the world and who carries out incisive reforms. In Spain they haven't done anything for almost a year. On an economic level, Spain is experiencing some income, let's say that they start with a few goals advantage, even if with structurally less performing players, while Italy is now starting the comeback and can count on a structurally stronger team. Of course, if in a few months Italy decides to sack the coach, the positions could be reversed…”.
