In the exhausting succession of denied rumors, it is still yellow on the Spain's next moves to face the crisis of its banking sector. According to Reuters sources, Spain will tomorrow ask for an aid package for its banking system, which could be followed a conference call of finance ministers and a press release from the Eurogroup. But shortly afterwards a Spanish government spokeswoman said she was unaware of a bank bailout request that Madrid intends to present at the weekend. Spain has repeatedly reiterated that it wants to wait for the results of the ongoing audit of the country's credit institutions before discussing with Europe the best measures to take to recapitalize the banks.
Those who don't wait, and again with suspicious timing, are Fitch cut its sovereign credit rating to BBB from A yesterday of Spain with a negative outlook, therefore one step away from junk status, which implies the obligation for most of the funds to dispose of the country's bonds. According to the rating agency, the cost of restructuring the banks can be estimated at between 60 and 100 billion euros, therefore between 6% and 9% of GDP.
In turmoil the differentials with bunds: the Bono-bund spread rises to 485 basis points and the Btp-bund to 445. Even the lists are back under pressure: after four days of increases, the markets are now moving in negative territory. At the end of the morning, however, the price lists were above the lows of the morning: Milan lost 1,63%, London 0,95%, Frankfurt 0,87% and Paris 1,07%. Madrid loses 0,33%. The euro fell against the dollar to 1,2459.
It didn't last long the effect of China which has cut the cost of money to support the economyAsian stocks also closed negative this morning, in the absence of an indication yesterday from Ben Bernanke on new quantitative easing. Clouds also over the French economy, whose central bank has cut its GDP estimates in the second quarter, which will drop by 0,1%: it would be the first quarter of recession since the spring of 2009. Greece too, which has now ended up in a vicious circle, is bad of austerity and recession from which it will be difficult to recover: in the first quarter the Greek economy contracted by 6,5%, worsening compared to the first reading of the GDP of -6,2%.
Again it is instead Germany, the first to benefit from the euro to date and which is taking advantage of a rock-bottom cost of debt, to show signs of greater economic reaction: the Bundesbank has revised upwards its estimates for 2012 to +1% from the +0,6% expected in December, despite the European debt presents an "exceptionally high" level of uncertainty. However, the German central bank reduced its forecasts for 2013 GDP to +1,6% from the +1,8% previously estimated. Inflation estimates have risen to 2,1% from 1,8% in 2012.
In Piazza Affari the sales hit the banks: Mps - 3,66%, Banco Popolare -3,48%, Bper -3,27%, Mediobanca -2,90%.
Little consolation for the sector are the data released by Bank of Italy for which non-performing loans did not worsen in April but remained stable at 14,6%. The annual growth rate of loans was then equal to 1,6% (1,3% in March.
Ma not very encouraging signals are coming from Istat for the Italian system, which in addition to the crisis will be put to the test in the coming months by the earthquake emergency which hit one of the most productive areas of the country: in April industrial production sank on an annual basis by 9,2%: the worst figure since November 2009 Compared to March, production decreased by 1,9%, while on average for the February-April quarter the index decreased by 2,5% compared to the immediately preceding three months.
THE LIGRESTIANS SAY NO TO THE WAIVER OF THE INDEMNITY AND OPEN TO ARPE
Among industrialists, Fiat loses ground by 3,5%, among the worst stocks in the Ftse Mib after the banks. Conversely, Telecom Italia +2,1%, Enel +1,44%, Enel Green Power +1,10%, Terna +0,29%, Snam Rete Gas +0,24% went against the trend. The Fonsai galaxy shines after the relaunch of Sator and Palladio: Fonsai salle by 7,4%, Premafin by 7,77% and Milano Assicurazioni +4,82% while Unipol rose by 0,95%. Arpe and Meneguzzo presented a new offer to Fonsai's board of directors which envisages a capital increase of no less than 800 million euros, of which 400 million are reserved "for investors, for an issue price of between 2 and 2,5 euros per action".
Another amount of at least 400 million is “offered as an option to everyone the Fonsai shareholders for a price not exceeding half of the price determined for the reserved capital increase”. All while the position taken by the Ligresti, who have announced that they will not give up their indemnity commitments, effectively blows up the possibility of reaching the Great Unipol. The waiver of the indemnity had in fact been set by the supervisory authorities as an essential point for the green light to the operation. The Ligresti, despite the ultimatum of Premafin's creditor banks for the enforcement of the pledges, thus decided to look in the direction of Arpe and Meneguzzo.
”This decision was taken particularly considering the continuous changes and the growing problems that have arisen in the merger operation between the Unipol Group, Premafin and the Fondiaria Sai group – explained the Ligresti -, such as, for example, the critical issues highlighted by independent advisors regarding Unipol's financial situation, currently not clarified or resolved, and the fact that, with a letter dated 6 June 2012 sent to Premafin, Fondiaria Sai and Milano Assicurazioni, UGF has once again raised the issue of swaps, demanding a substantial change. All this in order to consider alternative solutions, in the interest of the shareholders of Premafin, Fondiaria Sai and Milano Assicurazioni, as well as collaborators, agents and policyholders. The board of Premafin, which was supposed to evaluate the proposal formulated by Unipol, was thus postponed to Sunday afternoon while the boards of Fonsai and Milano Assicurazioni are scheduled for Monday.
