Mark this date on your diary: 18 January 2022. It will not be a trivial day for the two great challenges, that of Tim and that of the Generali, which promise to inflame Italian finance this year.
Tim's board will listen to the illustration of the guidelines of the new business plan which is processing the General Manager and Ad in pectore, Peter Labriola, and that, barring twists, it should predict Tim's parting into two parts: the activity of Service e the net, with the idea of join the latter to the Open Fiber infrastructure and thus give life to single telecommunications network. The two companies will share assets, employees and debts and will both remain listed on the stock exchange, thus responding to the findings of the European Commission, which is not at all against the single network, provided it does not take place in the hands of a vertically integrated group as Tim still is. The separation model is similar to the one followed years ago by Eni and Snam for the gas network.
Tim's project likes to Cassa Depositi e Prestiti, which is the second shareholder of the telephone company and the first of Open Fiber and which would become so the controlling shareholder of the future single network. And Vivendi also likes it, Tim's main shareholder, who could focus on the Service company.
Beyond the complexity of the operation, it remains to be understood though how would the American fund KKR rank, which late last year announced its intention to launch a friendly takeover bid on all Tim shares, but which, in substance, has always thought of a division of Tim itself similar to the one Labriola is developing, in order to satisfy the conditions set by the Government (network, technologies and employment) without incurring the vetoes of the Golden Power.
On the same day of Tuesday, news is also expected on the other hot front: that of Generalirocked by controversy resignation from the vice-presidency and from the board of directors of Francesco Gaetano Caltagirone, who, together with Leonardo Del Vecchio at the Crt, created an alternative consortium to the one led by Mediobanca. Well, tomorrow the board of Generali - from which Romolo Bardin of the Del Vecchio team also controversially resigned today - should carry out an initial screening of the candidates from which it will emerge towards mid-March board list which will be led by CEO Philippe Donnet and which will be submitted to the crucial vote of the company's assembly at the end of April. But if in the first list, the one led by Donnet and supported by Mediobanca and De Agostini, no big news is expected, except to clarify whether Gabriele Galateri will remain in the presidency, the alternative list of Caltagirone, Del Vecchio and Crt is different.
Caltagirone and Del Vecchio they know very well that their hopes of convincing the market and conquering Generali depend on two closely linked unknowns: the strategic plan and the team in charge of implementing it. What would the members of the alternative consortium really want to do differently than Donnet if they conquered the Lion? So far they have only given vague indications and mostly they have never clarified how they plan to finance growth for external lines and acquisitions that solicit Generali to return to excel in Europe and to compete with giants such as Allianz and Axa.
But no less important for the credibility of the Calta-Del Vecchio consortium is the quality of the team which must combine professionalism and independence. The names that have circulated under the radar are of absolute importance, such as those of Patrizia Grieco, current president of Monte dei Paschi and Assonime, and the former president of Confindustria, Emma Marcegaglia, for the presidency of Generali, while for the role of CEO surveys were carried out with Fabrizio Palermo, former CEO of CDP and now a consultant to the consortium, and with Sergio Balbinot, former CEO of Generali and now on the board of Allianz. Important names but games still open, because it will be necessary to see if the potential candidates (and which ones) will accept the offer. In any case, a very uncertain battle is looming for a jewel like Generali, which has 60 billion of Italian public debt in its belly, collects 70 billion in premiums and manages a total of 600 billion euros, and which for this very reason deserves a lot of attention and much caution on everyone's part.
