“Central banks preparing to launch biggest series of rate hikes in XNUMX years,” headlines this morning Financial Times. More tones for the Wall Street Journal: the US markets, stopped today for holidays, are heading towards stability, judging by the performance of the vix, the index of fear, options and bonds. Sure, pessimists crush optimists in polls, but this too is interpreted as a good buy indicator.
Tokyo runs, rumors of Xi-Li confrontation in China
In short, the signals are contradictory. But, lacking Wall Street's compass, which closed its best week since November 2020 on Friday, Asian stocks opened their doors on a positive note: Tokyo's Nikkei +2%, Seoul's Kospi +1,3%, BSE Sensex of Mumbai +1,5%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng gains almost 2%.
The CSI 300 of the Shanghai and Shenzen price lists also rose (+0,4%). Tonight, at 3am GMT, PMI indicators on manufacturing and service business expectations will provide additional insights into the fallout from the heavy activity restrictions imposed over the past two months in Shanghai and elsewhere in China. Economists expect a recovery for both, but not a return above the threshold that separates contraction from expansion.
Meanwhile, rumors of a Xi-Li dispute continue. The premier has spared no doubts about the success of the "zero Covid" policy which has brought the country to its knees. The port authorities of Shanghai have confirmed that from Wednesday all activities will be able to resume at full speed.
Oil rose, WTI by 0,8%, to 116 dollars a barrel, Brent by 0,6%, to 120 dollars. Crude oil was up 6% last week. On Tuesday, the oil issue will also be at the center of OPEC+.
Rooftops on gas, but arguing over the friendship pipeline
The EuroStoxx 50 index future is up 0,5%. The euro-dollar is at a five-week high, up 0,3% to 1,075.
With the US markets closed for Memorial Day, attention is focused on Brussels, where the extraordinary European Council focused on Energy, Ukraine and Defense will be held today and tomorrow with the presence of Volodymir Zelensky as a guest on the opening day. Yesterday, it seems, there was an agreement on Italy's request to introduce a ceiling on the price of energy, both gas and oil, but the agreement on the embargo on Russian oil fell through. The black smoke arrived at yesterday's meeting of the ambassadors of the member countries, who could not find an agreement to include the blockade in the sixth package of sanctions, despite the exemption for the Friendship pipeline (Druzhba), which carries crude to Hungary and the Eastern EU countries but which also serves Germany.
Corporate Italy in report: Visco's considerations tomorrow
Busy week for corporate Italy. Today the Abi Council and the Consob-Assonime conference "Corporate governance in times of transitions" are held, attended by Daniele Franco, minister of the Economy, Paolo Savona, president of Consob, and Patrizia Grieco, president of Assonime. The General Assembly of Assolombarda 2022 is held in Milan.
Tomorrow, for the eleventh time, the governor of the Bank of Italy will hold the "final considerations" of the institute in via Nazionale. After Covid we return to the meeting with 150 VIPs of the economy of our house.
Tim/Open Fiber, the negotiations for the single network start
The expected white smoke arrived on Sunday: Cassa Depositi e Prestiti, KKR, Macquarie, Open Fiber and TIM signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding "for the creation of the single network with the aim of creating a single operator of telecommunications networks, not vertically integrated, controlled by CDP and participated by Macquarie and KKR, which makes it possible to accelerate the diffusion of optical fiber and VHCN (Very High Capacity Networks) infrastructures on the entire national territory”.
If the negotiations are successful (limit date 31 October 2022), the separation of the fixed network infrastructure activities from Tim's commercial activities will thus take place, through one or more transactions. In the end Tim, on the Italian market, will be able to focus its activities primarily on telecommunications and data transmission services.
Generali, the Caltagirone tear to the nomination committee today
But at the corporate level, the most awaited appointment is the meeting of the Generali Appointments Committee. Under the chairmanship of Andrea Sironi, the committee will tackle the knot of the possible re-edition of the Strategic Committee (with a new formulation) and above all it will begin the examination of the replacement of the outgoing director Francesco Gaetano Caltagirone.
EU inflation and PMI services data are on the way
The macro week was equally rich. Today the EU releases the economic and consumer confidence indexes (final) for May. Germany and Spain Release May Preliminary Inflation Data; Italy communicates production prices for April.
Tomorrow is the turn of GDP in Italy and France in the first quarter and inflation in the two countries, as well as that in the Eurozone. Unemployment rates in the EU and Italy for April will be released on Wednesday.
The Fed begins budget cuts.
Wednesday will be a historic day for the Fed. The central bank will begin cutting its $9.000 trillion balance sheet overseas. The Beige Book will also be released in the evening. Friday will feature labor market data for May, which will be released on Friday.
Alphabet and Wal-Mart shareholders' meetings scheduled
In the US, the meetings of Alphabet and Wal-Mart are scheduled for the week. On day 6, the terms for the conversion of Amazon shares in the ratio of 20 new shares for each single share already held expire.
